Friday 16 November 2018

Democrats to 'restrain' Trump after House win

Count: A supporter of Republican Beto O’Rourke cries as he concedes Texas. Picture: REUTERS/Mike Segar
Count: A supporter of Republican Beto O’Rourke cries as he concedes Texas. Picture: REUTERS/Mike Segar

John Whitesides in Washington

US President Donald Trump faced greater restraints on his presidency after Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and pledged to hold the Republican accountable after a tumultuous two years in the White House.

Mr Trump and his fellow Republicans expanded their control of the US Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections, following a divisive campaign marked by fierce clashes over race and immigration.

But they lost their majority in the House, a setback for Mr Trump after a campaign that became a referendum on his leadership.

With some races still undecided, Democrats were headed for a gain of more than 30 seats, beyond the 23 they needed to claim their first majority in the 435-member House in eight years.

Seizing the Senate had never looked a likely prospect for the Democrats, and in the event they fell short of a tidal wave of voter support that would have given them control of both chambers of Congress.

Winning the Senate majority would have allowed Democrats to apply the brakes even more firmly on Mr Trump's policy agenda and given them the ability to block any future Supreme Court nominees.

However, the Democrats will now head House committees that can investigate the president's tax returns, possible business conflicts of interest and possible links between his 2016 election campaign and Russia.

The Democrats also could force Mr Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions, possibly dooming his promises to fund a border wall with Mexico, pass a second major tax-cut package, or carry out his hardline policies on trade.

"Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans, it's about restoring the constitution's checks and balances to the Trump administration," Nancy Pelosi, leader of the House Democrats, told supporters at a victory party.

Despite his party's poor showing in House elections, Mr Trump wrote on Twitter, "Tremendous success tonight."

Mr Trump - a 72-year-old former reality TV star and businessman-turned-politician - had hardened his rhetoric in recent weeks on issues that appealed to his conservative core supporters. He threw himself into the campaign, issuing warnings about a caravan of Latin American migrants headed to the border with Mexico and condemnations of liberal American "mobs" he says oppose him.

US presidents often lose the House in midterm elections in their first term. Former president Barack Obama's Democrats were hit with what he called a "shellacking" in congressional elections in 2010.

With divided leadership in Congress and a president who has taken an expansive view of executive power, Washington could be in store for even deeper political polarisation and legislative gridlock.

European shares rebounded yesterday after the US elections delivered no big surprise.

"With the Democrats taking over the House, we will now have to see what gridlock in Congress means for policy. As for the market impact, a split Congress has historically been bullish for equities and we expect to see the same pattern again," said Torsten Slok, chief international economist of Deutsche Bank.

Investors often favour Washington gridlock because it preserves the status quo and reduces uncertainty, even though many in the market this time around had been hoping for a continuation of the Republican agenda.

Losing the House will test Mr Trump's ability to compromise, something he has shown little interest in over the past two years with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress.

There may be some room to work with Democrats on issues with bipartisan support such as an infrastructure improvement package or protections against prescription drug price increases.

"We will have a responsibility to find our common ground where we can, stand our ground where we can't," said Ms Pelosi, who has been one of the most frequent targets for Mr Trump's scathing attacks on his critics and political opponents.

Every seat in the House was up for grabs on Tuesday. The Republicans had an advantage in Senate races because elections were held for only 35 seats in the 100-member chamber and many of them were in states that often lean Republican.

Republicans built on their slim Senate majority and ousted four incumbent Democrats: Bill Nelson in Florida, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Claire McCaskill in Missouri.

In the 36 gubernatorial contests, Democrats won governorships in states that supported Mr Trump in 2016 but lost high-profile races in Florida and Ohio.

After their victory, House Democrats are expected to try to harden US policy toward Saudi Arabia, Russia and North Korea, while maintaining the status quo on hot- button areas like China and Iran.

They could make life difficult for Mr Trump by launching another congressional investigation into allegations of Russian interference on his behalf in the 2016 election. The Democrats are awaiting the result of an ongoing federal probe by US Special Counsel Robert Mueller into Russia's role in that election.

Moscow denies meddling and Trump denies any collusion. A House majority would be enough to impeach Mr Trump if evidence surfaced of collusion by his campaign, or of obstruction by the president of the federal investigation.

But Congress could not remove him from office without a conviction by a two-thirds majority in the Republican-controlled Senate, an unlikely scenario.

Most Democratic candidates in tight races stayed away from harsh criticism of Mr Trump during the midterm campaign's final stretch, focusing instead on bread-and-butter issues like maintaining insurance protections for people with pre-existing medical conditions, and safeguarding the social security retirement and Medicare healthcare programmes for senior citizens.

The Democratic gains were fuelled by women, the young and Hispanic voters, a Reuters/Ipsos election day poll found.

Some 55pc of women said they backed a Democrat for the House this year, compared to 49pc in the 2014 midterm congressional election.

Irish Independent

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