A DCU expert in international conflict resolution who had to flee Kyiv as the Russian invasion started says it is very difficult to see an outcome from peace talks because it is so difficult to negotiate with “madman” Vladimir Putin.
r Abel Polese is a senior research fellow in international conflict resolution and reconstruction with a particular interest in post-Soviet politics and societies.
Talks between Ukraine and Russia tentatively began on the Belarusian border earlier this week, but setting out his conditions for further talks with Russia, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday: “It’s necessary to at least stop bombing people, just stop the bombing and then sit down at the negotiating table.”
Speaking to the Irish Independent, Dr Polese said talk of a nuclear threat has left him feeling scared.
“I am scared because we are talking about a non-rational actor, and it is absolutely insane what he has done so far. I would never risk saying ‘no, he is just bluffing’,” he said. “On one side of the table there is a madman. That’s the problem. It’s almost impossible to understand the rationality of this person when he contradicts himself day by day.
“For one thing, he said he would only hit military targets and today he has openly acknowledged to be targeting civilians. Every single line coming out of his mouth is a lie.
“In conflict resolution you ask both sides to tell the story of the conflict from the other side’s perspective, which is a way to put your people into your enemy’s head and make them see the other side. I don’t know if this person would be able to do that.
“If he wants to go to the negotiating table and come out as the good guy who spared people’s lives and was generous, that is an option. But on the other hand, you never know.”
He said a theory of dictatorship shows that a dictator does not need to be killed but can be stopped by cutting off support.
“People who support Putin should stop supporting him. Even if some of the people start this then there will be a tipping point at which everyone else will flee like rats from a sinking boat, and once the political order is changed they can recycle themselves, whereas if they stay on the wrong side they will sink with the ship,” he said. “If you erode a dictator’s money they will lose most of their assets and at some point the dictatorship fails.
“If he has no support he has to go. Anything could happen, but he is a very strong person and he will not admit defeat in any case. He will not go out quietly. He will burn or be burned.”
Speaking on the build-up of troops on the border with Ukraine, and the invasion last week, Dr Polese said he didn’t think Putin would go that far.
“He has always been very hostile to Ukraine and recently tensions increased. I won’t say that everyone in Ukraine wanted the same thing but there was a consensus that the country was developing quite well.”
He said at first he thought the build-up of troops on the border was a provocation like with Russia and Georgia in the past.
“Putin seemed to be putting the accent on the separatist region,” Dr Polese said.
“I landed in Ukraine to see my children the night before the Russians invaded, and at 5am the next morning I was woken up and told I had to leave the city because the Russians were invading.
“At 5am the airports and other military objectives were bombed in sequence, and while that was happening Putin made his announcement. I was in the garden and I could hear clear explosions, but the Russian tanks had not entered yet.
“There were explosions in the city. We were fleeing south west on secondary roads in two cars because we were trying to avoid airports and other places that could be bombed,” he said.
“My children are 15 and 12. From their perspective, and my ex-wife’s perspective, they had to flee their house and take a few things that would fit in the car, and leave their lives there and their memories behind, not knowing if they would ever come back. Do you run and save your life, or maybe stay if it will not be too bad? I was in the other car with her parents, who considered both positions.
“They were contemplating returning to Kyiv but then they learnt that the tanks had entered the region a few hours after the attack.”
The family later managed to safely leave Ukraine.
Asked about the sudden development of the invasion and the international response to it, Dr Polese said it was “fascinating and disgusting at the same time”.
“It is fascinating because I’ve never seen anything happen so fast and so big in Europe, and the international reaction too. Even the thought of admitting Ukraine to the EU now through an emergency procedure is not something I would even have been able to imagine,” he said.
“I worked for the EU before, and I know how bureaucratic it can be, but this is different from anything I’ve ever seen.
“The response has not been purely a military one but economic too. The ruble has dropped 30pc which will affect the ability to finance the war.
“It is a war being fought with many weapons, including the internet.
“I am amazed at the military support from the EU. I didn’t think this would happen.
“I think the EU was too neutral for too long and then woke up. Someday someone will thank Putin for creating a European army.”
