Wednesday 21 February 2018

Tories on course for a landslide win

Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

The Conservative Party can win a 100-seat majority at the snap election, analysis by Britain's leading pollster has suggested.

If current polling was replicated at the ballot box, the Tories would win an estimated 375 seats - almost double the 189 that Labour would pick up.

Such a result would vindicate Theresa May's decision to go for an early vote, with the Tory working majority soaring from 17 to 100, according to the projection. Prof John Curtice from Strathclyde University, who conducted the analysis, said that Labour's collapse under Jeremy Corbyn helped explain the results.

A recent poll of polls put the Conservatives on 43pc of the vote and Labour on 27pc - a Tory lead of 16 points. Ukip and the Lib Dems were both on 10pc.

If that voting occurred at the election and the swing was equal across the UK, the Tory majority would rise to an estimated 100 seats. Prof Curtice said: "Theresa May wins seats from the Labour Party. Why? Because Labour is at sixes and sevens, Jeremy Corbyn is not a very popular leader and the party is divided over Brexit, whereas Mrs May seems to be at least reasonably popular."

He added that the massive majority for the Tories suggested by their poll lead would, in reality, likely be far smaller. "Although Mrs May goes into this election with an enormous lead over Labour, she is not guaranteed to secure the overwhelming majority that she evidently hopes to secure," he said.

"The SNP remains dominant in Scotland and is likely to retain most of the 56 seats that they already hold. Therefore any majority has to be acquired through winning seats in England and Wales alone. Meanwhile, there are relatively few marginal seats."

Irish Independent

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