What is driving the fall in Covid deaths here?

 

Young and healthy

We know that over the summer it is mostly younger age groups who are picking up the virus and this affects the death rate.

The median age of new confirmed Covid-19 cases was 35 years old for the week ending July 17. It has been coming down from mid-May when the median age was 48. Younger people are not immune to the effects of the virus, but the chances of them getting seriously ill are lower. They present a risk of spreading the virus and also infecting people who are vulnerable due to age or illness.

 

Older age groups

Older people, particularly those from their late 70s onwards, continue to bear the brunt in terms of deaths, although nothing on the scale of April. The number of people who have died from Covid-19 was below 10 in the three weeks to mid-July and is likely to have fallen even further. The week ending April 17 was the peak of the crisis when 270 people died and a total of 6,049 cases were reported that week.

Some 65pc of all confirmed Covid-19 deaths to date are in the 80 years or older age group. In the week up to last Monday, six deaths were reported among people 78 years and older. There were no new deaths among under-65s.

 

Control of outbreaks

One of the major factors behind these statistics showing a fall in fatalities has been the control which has been brought to outbreaks of the virus in nursing homes and other residential centres.

This has meant elderly people are not facing the same threat as in the spring months. Experts also say that hospital specialists now have more experience of treating very ill patients compared with at the start of the pandemic and this affects survival. More studies have emerged about the use of existing drugs which can be used in treatment.

 

Incomplete picture

There is still at lot of data that needs to be pulled together to provide a better understanding of what is happening around deaths from the virus. Where are people dying? Is it in nursing homes or in their own homes? What kind of underlying conditions did they have? Were they already at end stage of illness? Had they confirmed virus or was the death for Covid-19 deemed 'possible' or 'probable'?

The other confounding issue is that there can be a time lag between the time of death and notification. However, despite the deficits, it's fair to conclude that the numbers succumbing to the disease have fallen dramatically and that the proportion of those needing hospitalisation is also way down.

Visit our Covid-19 vaccine dashboard for updates on the roll out of the vaccination program and the rate of Coronavirus cases Ireland