Alarm bells at the ready as we see the first stirrings of a second wave

Eilish O'Regan

A lab technician holds a tube with a patient's sample to perform COVID-19 PCR tests at Hermes Pardini Lab amidst the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Vespasiano, Brazil. (Photo by Pedro Vilela/Getty Images)

July 10 2020 02:30 AM

New cases of the virus are rising again and, although alarm bells have not yet sounded as the figures emerged yesterday, there is a clear dread that if people let their guard down the virus is on its way to taking hold again.

Another 23 new cases of the virus were reported - a substantial number compared to previous days.

But the real story is in the trends behind these figures and what they tell us about the triggers which could see the country battling another serious spread.

The feared impact of foreign travel is making its mark and a number of the people who were newly diagnosed were linked in some way to a person coming into the country having been infected abroad.

That person infected one or more people after their arrival here. They in turn passed it on to others in their circle, which is now broadening as people get the opportunity to mix more in pubs, restaurants and other gatherings.

A rise in cases following the new freedoms allowing more post-lockdown mingling is not unexpected. But the big fear is that clusters will get bigger and be more difficult to control.

Clearly, the strong advice to self quarantine for two weeks after arriving here from abroad is being flouted in many cases and this is a major weakness in the efforts to keep the reins on the risk of cases of the virus being "imported" here again, as happened in February.

The National Public Health Emergency Team which met yesterday now wants airports to increase the alerts about the need to self-quarantine and people to report any potential symptoms of the virus. But as holiday traffic increases over the summer it will become more difficult to stem the threat of more cases of the virus being picked up on foreign holidays and spreading here.

The other trigger in the rise in cases is the socialising by younger age groups in particular who are not maintaining physical distancing.

Some 77pc of the cases were in the under-25s.

Younger people are less at risk from complications of the virus, but they can be the source to pass it on to somebody vulnerable who can end up seriously ill in hospital.

The key to preventing a cluster of cases escalating into a major outbreak and proliferating is early detection and speedy contact tracing.

The complexities of tracking all contacts involved in recent clusters were emphasised yesterday and some are still under way.

There is now another difficulty emerging and that is the reluctance of people who are identified as close contacts to agree to be tested.

The number of no-shows means there are people who may have the virus but no symptoms who are not self-isolating and are moving about in the community.

This is a new hurdle to be faced by public health officials here and it is indicative of a complacency about the virus that was not present when cases were rising and at their height.

The virus is still circulating at low levels here but, as we know from the experience of other countries, a flare-up can change that in days and the Government could be imposing forms of local lockdowns again.

The figures are another wake-up call to the wider public that they should continue to practise the basic precautions in their daily lives.

So continue to maintain physical distancing, wear a face mask or covering, wash hands, and cover coughs and sneezes.

Most of us would be content with the restricted new normal we are enjoying; but the freedoms might be snatched away if the R number - which indicates how many people a person positive for the virus can infect - goes up again.