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Wednesday 18 September 2019

Climate change 'to blame for extreme weather last year'

'A study of the record-breaking heat wave that devastated Europe and the Mediterranean in 2017 found that such events are now three times as likely as they were in 1950.' Photo: PA
'A study of the record-breaking heat wave that devastated Europe and the Mediterranean in 2017 found that such events are now three times as likely as they were in 1950.' Photo: PA

Sarah Kaplan

A drought scorched the Great Plains, causing wildfires and $2.5bn (€2.2bn) in agriculture losses; catastrophic floods submerged more than a third of Bangladesh; record-shattering heat waves killed scores of people in Europe and China.

These were among 15 extreme weather events in 2017 that were made more likely by human-caused climate change, according to in-depth studies published this week in the 'Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society'.

At least one episode - a devastating marine heat wave off the coast of Australia that cooked ecosystems and damaged fisheries - would have been "virtually impossible" without human influence, scientists said.

The findings underscore the degree to which climate change is already harming human society, researchers said.

"People used to talk about climate change as a very complex and difficult problem of the future - something that would happen in places far away and on long time scales," said Jeff Rosenfeld, the 'Bulletin's' editor in chief. "But hurricanes and wildfires and bleaching and drought... they're happening to us right now, and we face new and challenging risks of how they're going to affect us in the future."

The 'Bulletin' has published an 'Explaining Extremes' report, which seeks to determine which weather events can be attributed to climate change, every year since 2011.

This is the second consecutive year that scientists have identified an event that could not have happened without human-induced warming.

This year's report features 17 peer-reviewed analyses of 16 disasters by 120 researchers looking at weather across six continents and two oceans.

A study of the record-breaking heat wave that devastated Europe and the Mediterranean in 2017 found that such events are now three times as likely as they were in 1950. The chance of such an event recurring in any given summer is now 10pc.

In China and Bangladesh, climate change made deadly flooding twice as probable.

A drought in East Africa that left six million people in Somalia facing food shortages was caused by dramatic ocean warming that could not have occurred without humans' impact on the environment.

Ocean warming played a role in several of the events examined, Mr Rosenfeld said.

"If there's something that has changed in these studies, it's that the connections are more apparent between the ocean and land," he said.

"The ocean has its warming temper tantrums just like the weather overland does."

This runs counter to a popular image of the ocean as a vast global warming buffer, capable of taking up huge amounts of additional carbon that humans have added to the global system.

"The fact we're seeing the oceans as a link in a chain of causes that ultimately tie human causes to extreme weather events on land means the ocean is not just there to keep us from being bothered by climate change," he added."Quite the opposite. The ocean is actively playing a role in the extremes that we're seeing."

Only one of the studies - a look at wildfires in Australia - did not find a role for climate change.

Martin Hoerling, co-editor of the report, said "the human fingerprint is more evident" than when the 'Bulletin' began quantifying climate change influence on extreme weather seven years ago.

(© The Washington Post)

Irish Independent

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