Friday 23 February 2018

Stats don't back panic buys

There is no correlation between big January spending and avoiding relegation, according to research
There is no correlation between big January spending and avoiding relegation, according to research

Premier League clubs who resort to panic buying in the January transfer window to try to escape relegation have been no more successful than those who have stuck with their squads, according to research.

A study of the transfer window over the last 10 years by Professor Chris Brady, director of Salford Business School's centre for sports business, shows clubs who bring in lots of new players are just as likely to go down as those that do not.

Spending in this January by top-flight clubs is likely to be around £110million - slightly down on the last two years, and well down on the record £225million forked out in 2011.

Brady told Press Association Sport: "Purely statistically, there is zero correlation between buying lots of new players in the transfer window and avoiding relegation. You can buy loads and get relegated, buy loads and stay up or buy none and stay up.

"In 2005 Fulham bought no players in January and escaped relegation but others such as Cardiff last season and Derby in 2008 bought seven or eight news players and still went down.

"If you look at the ratio of January spending compared to the overall spend, then there are clubs in panic mode, but in recent years only one has spent more than 40 per cent of their annual spend in January - and no surprises that is QPR."

Brady said, by contrast, clubs such as Everton and Arsenal averaged five per cent of their spending in January.

He believes UEFA's financial fair play rules have had a damping-down effect at the top of the Premier League, but that it was not the biggest factor.

At the start of deadline day, Premier League clubs had spent around £80million on new players - down on the £95million the same time last year.

Dan Jones, partner in the sports business group at Deloitte, said: "While the summer window saw a record level of transfer spending, so far we have seen spending in January being slightly more reserved.

"However, 2014/15 is still a record season for Premier League spending, with clubs having spent over £900million - significantly ahead of the previous record of £760million."

That record comes on the back of the unprecedented £5billion TV rights deals agreed by the Premier League for the 2013-16 seasons, and it is due to agree the 2016-19 rights later this month with another bumper payday expected.

Press Association

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