The young gun, the incumbent and the star out in the cold - race is on to be Ireland's number 12

It’s a position close to Andy Farrell and his attack coach Mike Catt’s heart, considering they both played international rugby at inside centre, and it’s one they’ll be pondering long into the night at their Algarve base this weekend.

The three options available all offer various levels of experience and bring different strengths to the table.

The most capped of them is currently being frozen out by his province, the newest face has been blazing a trail across Europe and trains with the majority of the backline on a daily basis, while the incumbent has done little wrong since starting all three games in November. 

Farrell will weigh up their strengths and weaknesses carefully before making his call on Thursday. 

It will be a pivotal selection and there’s a case to be made for all three.

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THE INCUMBENT

Why drop Stuart McCloskey? During Ulster’s wretched run of form he’s almost looked like a fellow with a bucket trying to bail out the Titanic. He stands tall even as the ship goes down, making plays and doing the heavy lifting.

He’s only got nine caps, but that’s because he’s spent his entire career in an era where the big three have been dominant. Joe Schmidt preferred Chris Farrell when the others weren’t around.

A combination of Aki’s suspension, Henshaw’s injury and Farrell’s unavailability due to a pending court case in France opened the door in November and he impressed before coming off injured against South Africa.

The knock cleared in time for him to start against Fiji and Australia and he didn’t look out of place.

That said, Ireland’s attack didn’t flow too well in those games and, while the absence of Johnny Sexton and James Lowe was seen as the main reason, the No 12 has a role to play.

Still, it would be cruel for him to lose his shirt in these circumstances. Cardiff is always a battleground and McCloskey is a warrior.

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THE FORM MAN

It’s a surprise that Jamie Osborne isn’t a doubt due to a powerful onset of burnt ears.

The compliments have been flowing freely from the rugby commentariat, who have waxed lyrical about the 20-year-old from Naas after his impressive recent performances for Leinster.

He’s uncapped, but he has played for Ireland ‘A’ and Emerging Ireland, while they’ve had him in to train with the seniors. Osborne has been on the radar for a good while.

Can he make the leap to international rugby?

He has the size, he is familiar with the players around him and his performances recently belied a nascent confidence that would allow him to step up and thrive.

You only have to ask England’s Mathew Tait about the difficulty of making your debut as a youngster away to Wales, but Osborne has taken every step along the way with aplomb.

A year ago, Mack Hansen was picked in the Six Nations squad and went straight into the starting XV based on his performances at training. His form with Connacht had been exceptional, so Farrell backed him all the way.

Osborne needs to dazzle them in Portugal this week but the coach has a proven track record of backing young players if they’re playing well. He’s got a shot.

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THE EXPERIENCED MAN

How is Bundee Aki’s head-space coming into this one?

Selection hasn’t gone his way at Connacht recently, while his ban early in the season stopped him getting into any flow. As a result, he’s only played 333 minutes.

And yet, he showed during 27 minutes at the Aviva Stadium against Australia why he is still regarded as one of the finest inside centres in the game. Aki has always been effective for Ireland, but under Farrell his development as a passing option has been a big shift in the way he’s contributed to the cause.

Often, it’s the 32-year-old who pulls the strings for the front-line of Ireland’s attack and that allows Sexton or the out-half to orchestrate things in the second-wave that opposition defences find so difficult to shut down.

Aki still brings his compelling blend of forceful carrying, hard tackling and offloading ability to the party. He’s rarely, if ever, had a bad game for the team.

The biggest red flag around his inclusion would be his discipline.

His red card against the Stormers was his third since 2019, two of which came on international duty. His reaction to the referee that day suggested he isn’t in agreement with the way the game is being refereed and is unwilling to adapt.

Farrell (inset) has been accommodating thus far, but he knows that red cards can be costly at World Cups. Aki’s suspension was a big blow to Ireland’s efforts against New Zealand four years ago and a banned player can’t be replaced.

The upside with Aki has so far outweighed the negative and if he parks his Connacht issues and trains well, then there’s a compelling case for his inclusion.

Considering he’s made a strong impact off the bench in three of his last four caps, there’s an argument for keeping him on ice and bringing him into a tight game.

Whatever way Farrell goes, he’s got good options.

As training steps up in Portugal, it’s wide open.