All of the available evidence points to a win for Ireland in Cardiff this afternoon.
he number one ranked team in the world are a settled, well-oiled machine who are layering additional wrinkles on to their carefully constructed plan on the back of one of their greatest years in green.
Standing in front of them is a Wales team that looks past its best. A side that won just two of their last 10 games and lost to Italy and Georgia at home in 2022. The bookies reckon it’s a seven-point game.
Logic is logic, but this is the Six Nations. Warren Gatland is Warren Gatland. Cardiff is Cardiff. All bets are off.
The analysts may dismiss it as superstitious nonsense, but there was an unsettled feeling to Ireland earlier this week as they ripped up the script at training in order to shake up the squad.
There’s a nervousness about Gatland and his decision to surround himself with familiar faces from his glorious past.
All week they’ve been talking about the noise of the stadium, and the name of performance coach Gary Keegan has cropped up frequently too.
In Tadhg Furlong, they’ve lost one of the key pillars and even Johnny Sexton admitted that there’s no guarantee that he’ll hit the ground running on his return from injury. One game in 13 weeks is not ideal preparation.
If Ireland are the team many of us think they are, they’ll put those concerns to bed.
On paper, they’re a far better side than the Welsh and in almost every department they have the edge.
Winning unlocks a world of possibilities. There’s a Grand Slam in this team and the path to glory begins in Cardiff this afternoon.
Fast start
November saw Ireland lose their knack for starting better than their opponents and you can be sure that Andy Farrell has been drilling his desire to get on top of Wales early into his players.
He knows that Gatland will have a galvanising effect on the locals who are desperate for some good news after a bruising year.
The Welsh players will feed off that energy and pour into the fixture full of their coach’s belief.
It can only be skin deep however. If Ireland can remind Wales of why they had to sack Wayne Pivac early on, then they’ll be on to a winner.
Saying you’ll start fast is a lot tougher than doing it.
Ireland say their preparation in Portugal was the best block of training they’ve put together, so there is no excuse for not being mentally ready for the task.
It’s about getting your hands on the ball and playing in the right areas. Creating quick ball for Jamison Gibson-Park and then taking the correct options. It’s about building a score and silencing the crowd, making the Welsh chase you down.
In last year’s Six Nations, Ireland were the most frequent visitors to the opposition ’22 with 11.8 per match, while they also scored more per visit (2.7 points) than anyone else. That’s a potent combination.
Quick ball is the key.
Countering the Welsh ruck
There were a couple of factors behind Ireland’s less impressive attack in November, but chief amongst them was the way the opposition adapted to them.
When you win a series in New Zealand playing fluid, attacking rugby then everyone pours over the footage to learn what you’re doing and to find a way of stopping it.
South Africa, Fiji, and Australia took the approach of piling into rucks to slow down the supply of possession to Gibson-Park.
It started with the initial collision and was followed up by committing bodies to the breakdown. In doing so, they were taking a risk by removing men from the defensive line but that was a price worth paying.
That Ireland emerged with three wins from three was admirable, but Farrell wasn’t fooled by the results. He and his coaching ticket got an early look at what’s coming down the track.
Helpfully, Gatland laid out his plans in a column with an English newspaper yesterday; referencing La Rochelle, Saracens, and the Bulls’ success against Leinster and the All Blacks and Springboks’ efforts in thwarting Ireland.
“International rugby is about having the right mindset,” Gatland wrote.
“There is no secret to winning Test matches. It is about winning collisions, whether it be in attack or defence, and if you look at both Ireland and Leinster, the games they have lost have tended to be when teams have come really hard at them.”
In last year’s tournament, Ireland were the only team to manage an average ruck-speed of less than three seconds, while they also successfully slowed down the opposition (3.85 seconds) more than anyone else.
Wales, who pride themselves on their breakdown work, were second on that chart. If they can starve Ireland of the quick ball they thrive on, they’ll be in a good spot.
Play through the lines
Writing in these pages during the summer, former Ireland flanker Dan Leavy gave the best outline of Ireland’s overwhelming attack we’ve heard.
Having played a similar system at Leinster, he spoke about playing on top and then through teams, of clever tip-on passes and multiple options that mean opponents can’t make a decision until it’s almost too late.
“It’s all about the tightness of the shapes,” he wrote. “You can’t have the ball in the air for too long because that gives the defender time to make a read, get off the line and make tackles.”
When it flows it’s breath-taking to watch and impossible to defend. We only saw glimpses in the autumn and the return of Sexton should help get it back up and running.
It is hard to click first game up, but if Ireland can get on top of and play through Wales then their route to a victory will be far easier.
Kick well at the right times
To win the ground game you must control the skies.
Wales retained 19 of their own kicks in last year’s tournament and with Gatland having limited time to change things he’ll keep it simple.
So, Dan Biggar won’t be afraid to test Ireland’s back three, but Ireland have plenty of aerial weapons themselves and for all that their attack is lauded they’re not a team that dallies in the wrong areas of the field.
They’ve adapted to the 50:22 law change far quicker than anyone else, kicking six in 2022. No one else managed more than two.
If they can dominate territory and deny Wales access through the air, they’ll be in good shape.
Front-up at set-piece
Physicality doesn’t begin and end at the ruck. Gatland will have noted how Leinster’s maul coughed up two penalty tries against Gloucester and how a couple of teams have been able to unsettle Dan Sheehan out of touch.
When you’ve had so little time to bed in ideas, you go after the low-hanging fruit and the canny Kiwi will be looking for gains out of touch knowing how frequently Ireland score from the lineout.
The scrum is another key battleground and Finlay Bealham will be tested like never before, with the inexperienced Tom O’Toole next cab off the rank.
Gatland will be licking his lips at the prospect. Get on top there and Wales will roll on.
If they can’t, it looks like Ireland have too many good players playing in an effective, familiar system to win.
There’s the logic talking again. We’ll see how it stands up when the madness begins.
