Monday 23 April 2018

Quantitative is just the stimulus

QUANTITATIVE easing (the fiscal terminology): an extreme form of monetary policy used to stimulate an economy. Quantitativeeasing (the horse): a potentially wise form of betting policy used to stimulate your Cheltenham profits.

Perhaps the most volatile moment in terms of antepost betting is in the immediate aftermath of an effective trial race. One of the more memorable was when Alexandrova drifted to 7/1 for the Oaks after being beaten in the Musidora in 2006. She went straight to Epsom and won by six lengths at 9/4.

Nicky Henderson's Quantitativeeasing was backed as short as 6/1 for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle prior to his prep run on Friday at Kempton. The anticipation was that he would win and shorten in the Cheltenham betting; instead, despite the contention that he was usurped because of a lack of pace, he is now as long as 16/1.

Last April, the Anshan-bred trounced 23 rivals on his debut in a Punchestown bumper, with the likes of smart subsequent novices Summit Meeting and Whodoyouthink in arrears. In his first two hurdling runs, he did not have much to beat but did so in a facile manner on both occasions.

Friday's race was his biggest jumping test yet. Second-favourite and well-backed was The Betchworth Kid, marked 104 on the flat. Quantitativeeasing beat him readily by a length on Friday.

Both were beaten by Phidippides, which poached a very soft lead at the tape and dictated a stop-start gallop under Paul Moloney. The Betchworth Kid settled but Quantitativeeasing was patently inconvenienced to a great degree, still pulling hard around halfway.

JP McManus' gelding was blowing hard post-race, and neither Henderson nor jockey Tony McCoy were unhappy. He remains very exciting.

Admittedly, Dermot Weld's Rite Of Passage -- if he runs -- must prove hard to beat, though he is inexperienced (one hurdling run). Another contender, Quel Esprit, is also far from certain to be declared for this race. Back the Henderson contender at 16/1 each way (a quarter of the odds to place).


Quantitativeeasing to win Neptune Novices' Hurdle, 1pt e/w at 16/1 (Coral)

England are around 1/10 to beat Italy today after their opening win over Wales, by which they were somewhat flattered. Martin Johnson's side are very much a work in progress and it was notable how much attacking weight they placed on the burly shoulders of their forwards.

The lineout will be key but Italy are no pushovers at home and they can frustrate the English, who struggled for a long time to break the gain-line against Wales. Sportingbet may be wrong in the belief that England are likely to accumulate 30 points or more.


England to score less than 29.5 points v Italy, 2pts at 11/10 (Sportingbet)

Bayern Munich have been popular on Betfair to get the better of Fiorentina in their Champions League last-16 tussle, the first leg of which takes place in Germany on Wednesday. Indeed, one can now lay Louis Van Gaal's charges at 1/2 to qualify -- a reflection of their blistering recent form.

Fiorentina's Serie A efforts of late have been poor, but they have been excellent in European combat. It is certainly a valid argument that they should be shorter on Betfair to reach the last 16 and it makes sense to lay Munich at 1/2 (five bookmakers quote 8/15).


Bayern Munich to qualify against Fiorentina, 2pts at 1.5 (1pt liability, Betfair)


Profit/Loss to €10 stake: -€5.50

Still running: €310

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