Saturday 21 July 2018

Motivado can show rivals the way home

Wayne Bailey - Betting Ring

DEATH, taxes, Frankel. There aren't many certainties in life and there are even fewer in racing -- but at least Frankel never lets us down.

On Wednesday, the wonder horse showed us once again why he is considered the greatest Flat horse of all time with a 13th straight win -- although at 1/10, he was virtually unbackable, much like he has been for most of his career.

Indeed, had you wagered €10 on the colt in each of his races to date, you'd find yourself only €57.80 better off. His breathtaking display over a mile and a quarter at the Knavesmire has already been covered comprehensively in the press this week so I'll get straight to the point: Is he worth a punt for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe?

On the face of it, odds of 2/1 seem fair. He flawlessly stepped up in trip on Wednesday and with seemingly unlimited gears, he would almost certainly get a mile and a half in Paris.

No-one is questioning his credentials but the fact that he's 2/1 ante-post as opposed to 1/3 'with a run' suggests connections will most likely stick to the original plan and take him to Ascot for Champions Day on October 20.


The risk, then, of being left with a useless docket on October 7 is rather high. Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to Frankel's owner Prince Khalid Abdullah, has said that they will give the Arc "consideration", although at this stage Frankel would have to be supplemented.

Trainers do change their minds, but in this case I think the safest option is to keep your cash in your pocket.

In the meantime, the action at York continues today with the Ebor Handicap taking top billing (3.40) and, while it feels a bit wrong to be backing a horse as short as 7/2 in a 21-runner race, MOTIVADO looks well in here under a 4lb penalty.

I'd be very surprised if Mark Prescott's four-year-old doesn't finish in the money in what is Europe's most valuable Flat handicap. An impressive-looking gelding, this smart handicapper has slowly worked his way back to form this season and I've heard some nice little gambles were landed when he took a class two handicap with loads in hand at Goodwood earlier this month.

A repeat of that form will surely see him go close and you get the strong feeling he has been campaigned with this race in mind for some time.

Of the rest, John Gosden's Camborne is of interest following success in a class two handicap at Royal Ascot in which he took a 13lb rise for a previous win at Doncaster in his stride.

But he's up a further 9lb today and is also stepping up in distance -- so it's doubtful he can quicken sharply when they reach the final furlong, as is his wont. Nonetheless, he's one to stick in the notebook for the future.


AT 14/1, ARNOLD LANE catches the eye in the Betfair Summer Double Second Leg Stakes at Goodwood (2.45).

Rated 96, the Mick Channon-trained three-year-old is only 1lb higher than his latest effort in which he was a very good second to Stirring Ballad in a quality handicap at Glorious Goodwood. He should have more to come.


2.15 Goodwood: Sky Lantern

2.45 Goodwood: Arnold Lane (e/w)

3.40 York: Motivado

8.0 Redcar: Aubrietia

Irish Independent

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