The famous green-and-gold silks of JP McManus have been carried to victory a number of times in the Galway Plate (6.40), and he throws four darts at the board again – including 2020 winner Early Doors.
ut at the time of writing, it’s McManus’s The Shunter which is attracting the most support in the early betting and looks set to go off as favourite around 13/2.
Fourth in this last year off the same rating of 152, the Emmet Mullins-trained gelding has had a nice preparation run for this at Sligo where he won his first Flat race priced 5/6, and he has to enter calculations this evening.
For me, though, the one that offers the best value is the Gordon Elliott-trained Ash Tree Meadow, which was a double-figure price of 12/1 with some firms yesterday.
Seán Flanagan gets the ride on the six-year-old which completed a hat-trick recently at Killarney, and that came on the back of a debut handicap win off 136 at one of Elliott’s favourite British tracks, Perth.
This race is often won by a horse with more experience, but a handful of six-year-olds have landed the prize over recent years including Balko Des Flos for Henry de Bromhead in 2017, and with a rating of 144 with the promise of more to come, I reckon Ash Tree Meadow has a much better chance than his odds suggest.
If you’re looking for an each-way bet today, consider Ottoman Style which has been chalked up around 16/1 for the SP Or Better Guaranteed With Tote Handicap Hurdle (5.40).
Trained by John McConnell, connections reckon this one will make a very nice chaser in time but he’s gone reasonably well in each of his three hurdle races for McConnell since switching from Jamie Snowden’s yard, and that includes a maiden hurdle victory at Downpatrick in May.
With just five runs under rules to his name and also a victory in a point-to-point, the six-year-old is still unexposed – and an opening handicap mark for this race of 116 gives plenty of room for manoeuvre as far as I can see. Regular partner Thomas Reilly will claim 7lbs, and I think this one can go close at a big price.
It looks like Rock Road could go off as favourite for Willie Mullins under Paul Townend. His price is short enough around 9/2, although he does have serious claims having won a Grade B handicap chase at Ballinrobe recently, and he traded below 1/10 in-running on Betfair before being caught late on by Waitnsee in a handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan last time out.
Snake Oil is another that should go well. Barry Connell’s gelding will carry top weight here of 12st with a rating of 125, but he’s shown some nice form since returning from a 428-day break in February and got back to winning ways with a maiden hurdle success in April.
He’s had various issues which have kept him out of racing so he doesn’t have that many miles on the clock for a seven-year-old, and he’s another one that is expected to go chasing soon enough.
Finally, Tony Martin’s Unanswered can send the punters home smiling with a victory in the Claim Your Welcome Offer At tote.ie Handicap (8.20), priced in the region of 9/2. A winner of a handicap over hurdles in May, he’s also won his latest three Flat races, all of them handicaps.
He’s obviously been going up in the ratings and is 7lbs higher than his winning rating of 64 at Killarney last time out, but the handicapper is finding it hard to get his measure and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have yet more to come considering the form he’s in.
Willie Mullins’s Dark Voyager is the biggest threat to the selection under Shane Foley. Now aged five, the gelding won a handicap here in 2020 and while his form has been up and down since, first-time blinkers seemed to help him last time out where he wasn’t disgraced when runner-up to stablemate Maze Runner in a handicap at the Curragh last month.
La Hacienda Duffle Coat and Away To Sea are others to consider, but hopefully Unanswered will be too tough a nut to crack.
Stat attack
Some good recent form is usually a plus in the Galway Plate, and nine of the last 14 winners had finished in the top three last time out – although the number of entries with that form can be high so it doesn’t always help to narrow down the field.
This year, for example, 13 of the 22 runners had a top-three finish last time out including the early favourite The Shunter, which won a Flat race at Sligo back in May.
The number of days since the horse last raced is also significant, and a long lay-off is normally a negative.
Since 2008, 32 horses which had not raced in the previous 120 days took part in the Galway Plate but none of them won.
Three were placed, however, including 4/1 favourite Royal Rendezvous in 2020 – and that horse went on to win last year having had a preparation race two months previously. Of today’s entries, Cape Gentleman (7/1) has not raced in 241 days.
Race-by-race guide to Day 3
5.10
The market is pointing to Joseph O’Brien’s Dawn Rising here around 9/4 having finished second in a Group Two when last seen – but that was two years ago. Instead, Peter Fahey’s Esperti gets the nod having finished fourth of 16 last time out, with the step up in trip expected to suit.
5.40
Ottoman Style looks unexposed and can be taken each-way around 16/1. An opening handicap mark of 116 is not too harsh, and his jockey claims a further 7lbs which gives the gelding every chance of at least a place.
6.10
Hophornbeam has improved dramatically since moving to Gordon Elliott’s yard, winning two of her three races – and with the likelihood of more to come, she looks a bit of value around 7/1. Stablemate Return To Base is the best of the rest.
6.40
Ash Tree Meadow gets the vote around 12/1 for Elliott and Seán Flanagan. He’s less exposed than some of these and appears to be in a rich vein of form, having completed a hat-trick of wins at Killarney recently. Fourth in this last year, early favourite The Shunter also commands respect.
7.15
The market will be useful to help sort the wheat from the chaff and Monarchs Brae catches the eye for Dermot Weld. He’s raced a couple of times at the Curragh without setting the world alight but Weld’s horses are always worth watching in maidens at Galway.
7.50
An open-looking handicap, Mister Wilson could be the one to side with around 11/2 for Gavin Cromwell and Gary Carroll. He went close in a Roscommon handicap last time and races off the same mark of 80, and he’s won at the course before.
8.20
Once again, the market should prove to be a useful guide here but Tony Martin’s Unanswered (9/2) is thriving at the moment, winning his last four races – one of them over timber. He’s up 7lbs to 71 but he’s expected to improve even more.
