Saturday 25 November 2017

Flynn likely to brew up a Storm

Johnny Ward

BAHRAIN Storm looks nicely overpriced to win the Galway Plate on Wednesday week at 12/1.

Given the over-rounds the bookmakers have in their favour in the ante-post markets, having an ante-post bet on the race is not necessarily wise. However, it's hard to see Bahrain Storm going off 12/1.

The favourite in the race tends to be sent off a median of around 9/2. Bahrain Storm presently disputes market leadership with Majestic Concorde, which is trained by Dermot Weld. That rival therefore warrants automatic attention, yet the eight-year-old will be carrying at least 11 stone and basically looks too high in the handicap.

Indeed, the number of horses which appeal among the Plate entries as having obvious potential to get one over on the handicapper is particularly small.

There is every reason to contend that Bahrain Storm can achieve a rating beyond his present 135. Firstly, he is unexposed, having run merely four times over fences. Secondly, he was second in a fiercely competitive Galway Hurdle last year off 147. Thirdly, his festival record is remarkable (form figures going into next week of 2-1-1-2), and an ability to go well at this venue is significant. Bahrain Storm has been trained for the race by Pat Flynn, who felt the horse would benefit from running over shorter at Killarney last Monday. In taking on the likes of Echo Bob over an extended two miles (and winning), the Bahhare-bred had to jump at speed and he impressed in so doing.

The only plausible negative is his relative inexperience over fences; his prominent style of racing ought to offset that in the main. As it is, he will carry just nine stone and ten pounds -- mostly David Casey. So enthusiastic is Flynn about the task ahead, his website will update enthusiasts on a daily basis about the horse's progress over the week or so.

RECOMMENDATION

Bahrain Storm to win Galway Plate, 1pt e/w at 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

THE Premier League welcomes another ex-League of Ireland star in Wesley Hoolahan, who has spent a number of seasons in England's lower leagues. He can make the step up to this level and so can Norwich City, who appeal at 11/4 to finish higher than the other two promoted teams, QPR and Swansea. Norwich finished just four points behind Rangers last season and the London club's hierarchy has promised boss Neil Warnock a minuscule budget for transfers. While Norwich are embracing a similar policy of parsimony, they have a shrewd manager in Paul Lambert and are no 11/4 chance in a three-horse race.

RECOMMENDATION

Norwich to do best of promoted trio, 2pts at 11/4 (William Hill)

Two sides with no realistic chance of winning the All-Ireland SHC, Limerick and Dublin, battle at the home of hurling next Sunday. That Thurles hosts this quarter-final rather than Croke Park is a boost to Limerick.

Indeed, the Treaty look long at the 2/1 presently available and it follows that a lay of the Dubs at around 3/5 on Betfair also appeals. Limerick really ought to have beaten Waterford and Dublin remain handicapped by a forward-line averse to scoring goals.

RECOMMENDATION

Lay Dublin to beat Limerick,

2pts at 1.6 approx (1.2pt liability, Betfair)

Year to date

Profit/loss to €10 stake: -€175.57

Still running: €140

valuebet@independent.ie

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