Saturday 24 February 2018

Cheltenham 2016: All today's top tips and race cards complete with silks

It's Day One of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival. Will it be another day for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins? Here is a complete race-by-race guide with Wayne Bailey, Richie Forristal and Patrick Mullins.

Wayne Bailey


Min has so far lived up to the hype winning both races since coming to Ireland, but he was 4/11 and 1/7 so this is his first real test and he could be vulnerable to the likes of ALTIOR. Nicky Henderson’s charge will also be tested like never before,  but he has won over the course and distance which may just give him an edge.


Willie Mullins has named DOUVAN as his best chance of a winner this week so it’s no surprise to see him as short as 4/11 in the betting. Sizing John was second to Douvan over the Christmas at Leopardstown and may be the one to follow him home again.


The Warren Greatrex-trained OUT SAM is a worthy favourite at around 11/2 off a mark of 139. He beat Milansbar at Newbury last time and that form has been boosted with Milansbar going on to win at Exeter. Jonjo O’Neill’s Holywell is another one for the shortlist.


A wide-open renewal which can go to Willie Mullins’ second-string NICHOLS CANYON. He appeared tired when third in the Irish Champion Hurdle which came quite soon after his success over Identity Thief in the Ryanair Hurdle. Stablemate Annie Power is obviously the big danger but looks a little skinny in the betting.


Once again, the strength of Willie Mullins’ day-one team is evident, and VROUM VROUM MAG can justify her price around evens to make it an eight victory in-a-row for the stable in this race. She’s extremely versatile and has now racked up eight wins in as many races over both timber and fences.


This looks quite tricky but odds in the region of 7/1 seem quite fair for NATIVE RIVER. Trained by Colin Tizzard, the gelding seemed distracted at Wetherby last time but he has a bit of talent deep down, and the application of cheekpieces should help him concentrate.


WILLOW’S SAVIOUR won a novice chase at Fakenham last time and a mark of 138 looks quite lenient. Dan Skelton’s nine-year-old was a decent hurdler in his time, beating Ptit Zig to win the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot in 2013.

CHELTENHAM, ENGLAND - MARCH 14: The Gordon Elliott string on the gallops at Cheltenham racecourse on March 14, 2016 in Cheltenham, England. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)

Richie Forristal

1.30 Grade One Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2m 1f

Min is far from the complete package but he clearly has enormous potential.

His form has generally held up impressively well, but he ran extremely freely at Punchestown last time, essentially bolting with Ruby Walsh.

If he gets lit up by the mayhem here, then he could be extremely vulnerable.

Stablemate Bellshill isn't as poor as his latest turn suggests. He will relish the strong pace back over this shorter trip and has the quality to run into a place, although he might lack a gear.

Supasundae and Silver Concorde were first and second at Leopardstown over Christmas. Both are exciting prospects with famously expert handlers.

That said, their overall profiles lack a little compared to some of these. Silver Concorde did win the Champion Bumper two years ago, but he is nil from three over flights.

Altior was eight lengths behind Bellshill in Punchestown's Champion Bumper. He has progressed to win four over flights, and is probably the pick of the British contingent.

Buveur D'Air is a similar sort. Fourth behind Barters Hill at Aintree when Bellshill was second, he is two from two at this job, but this is a massive step up in class.

The likes of Tombstone, Petit Mouchoir, Charbel and Penglai Pavilion are all talented.

Verdict: If Walsh can keep a lid on Min, it is hard to see him being beaten.

2.10 Grade One Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 2m

Races here don't come much more one-sided than this on paper. Douvan is a league apart from his six rivals.

Unbeaten in seven for Mullins, he was a sensational winner of the opener here 12 months ago, and recently added two Grade Ones over fences. We haven't seen a flaw in his armoury.

The only unknown, notwithstanding the caveat that he is a novice, is that we have no idea how he responds for pressure. There is a good reason for that.

Sizing John is a lovely prospect, but he has never troubled Douvan. In the event of some misfortune befalling the favourite, he would be the one most likely to pick up the pieces, while The Game Changer is also capable of running well on the drying ground.

Verdict: Barring accidents, Douvan will win by as far as Walsh dares.

2.50 Grade Three Ultima Handicap Chase 3m 1f

Out Sam has been well backed following two wins in novice company, but this is a sterner task. Beaten 11 lengths in the only handicap he ever ran in off 142, he is in off 139 now.

Holywell won this in 2014 off a mark of 145. Fourth in last year's Gold Cup, he is off 153 now, which isn't a bad mark if he can recapture his best form.

Spring Heeled is in a similar boat, out of form but just six pounds higher than when winning the 2014 Kim Muir. Shanahan's Turn has plenty on under joint top-weight, while Morning Assembly could go close for the raiders.

A Grade One winner over flights, he has twice run well since returning from injury, latterly when second to Smashing at Gowran Park. On better ground, he has a life under 11st 9lb.

Verdict: Pat Fahy's Morning Assembly can go close at a price for Davy Russell.

3.30 Grade One Stan James Champion Hurdle 2m 1f

Last year's Triumph Hurdle one-two-three, Peace And Co, Top Notch and Hargam, all have lots to prove at this level. The best juveniles often don't progress as well as many expect, and this trio has done little to dispel that theory. The New One and My Tent Or Yours are surely the pick of the home team. To date, The New One hasn't excelled in this race, but this is the worst edition that he has contested and he appears in reasonable order.

My Tent Or Yours split him and Jezki two years ago. He is a horse with a massive engine, but raced ruinously keen on that occasion. Connections have opted to prepare him for his first start in nearly two years by eschewing a run in favour of a couple of racecourse gallops.

It is a bold policy, but, if the principals go at each other early on and Barry Geraghty can get My Tent Or Yours settled, he has it within his range to come through and pick up the pieces.

Annie Power has also had an unorthodox preparation. She, too, is a keen runner, but she might be less so at this trip, which she hasn't tackled for over two years. We haven't seen many better mares and she was carried out on her shield in the 2014 World Hurdle, prior to last year's last-flight calamity in the mares' race; getting seven pounds from her rivals is not to be sniffed at.

Sempre Medici is hard to fancy, but he will be ridden to place and might well go close to doing so. Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief are two still relatively unexposed contenders.

Henry de Bromhead's decision to swerve the Irish Champion Hurdle with Identity Thief now looks inspired, given the price that Faugheen and Arctic Fire have since paid, and how tamely Nichols Canyon was beaten.

A Grade One winner this term when defying Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth, he will improve for better ground. He could be anything in time.

Nichols Canyon has to bounce back from that Leopardstown submission. He had previously put Identity Thief in its place over Christmas and remains the only horse to topple Faugheen.

He stays and enjoys decent ground; if you scratch his last run, he would likely be a raging favourite here.

Verdict: Every horse is entitled to a bad run and Nichols Canyon (Nap) has scope to step up for Paul Townend.

4.10 Grade One OLBG David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle 2m 4f

Vroum Vroum Mag is the outstanding candidate in this. In eight starts for Mullins, she has never been bettered.

She is hugely versatile, although this will be the best ground that she has raced on. On ratings, she is upwards of six pounds superior to her 19 rivals, and that is a status that she has earned.

Things haven't gone Bitofapuzzle's way over fences of late. A commendable third to Glens Melody here in 2015, she won a decent mares' race when last seen over flights at Fairyhouse last year. She could be the danger.

Gitane Du Berlais is a Grade One winner over fences. She is not the easiest to predict and is probably best with more ease underfoot, but clearly has the quality to get involved.

Polly Peachum was just denied by Glens Melody in 2015. She comes here in winning form and will appreciate the ground, so her claims are obvious.

Verdict: This is Vroum Vroum Mag's big chance and she won't pass it up.

4.50 National Hunt Challenge Chase (Amateur riders) 4m

Minella Rocco is the talking horse. He enjoyed a much-needed educational round at Ascot, but has twice looked out of sorts here and the main positive is the team that he represents.

Pont Alexandre's career has been blighted by injury. Nonetheless, he has returned at a fair level, latterly finishing third to Outlander in a Leopardstown Grade One.

Measureofmydreams and Noble Endeavor are also likely types, as is Neil Mulholland's dour Southfield Royale. A Doncaster Grade Two winner, he kept on well to be second to Tea For Two in a Kempton Grade One, and he should be better going left-handed.

Verdict: With Nina Carberry up, Southfield Royale (nb) appeals.

5.15 Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase 2m 4f

It's hard to get too excited about Domesday Book or McKinley, so Bridgets Pet might be the best of the Irish trio. On his best form he could run well, but he wouldn't be the most reliable.

Aloomomo has been carefully laid out for this and the compaction of the weights - just four pounds cover the entire field - aids the joint top-weight's case. Twelve Roses is another of note.

Fifth here to Faugheen as a novice hurdler, he beat Southfield Royale on his fencing bow. He was a back-to-form second to Killala Quay in a Kempton Grade Two last month, and would go close if he runs to that level.

Verdict: On this ground, Twelve Roses appeal as being well treated.

CHELTENHAM, ENGLAND - MARCH 14: The Gordon Elliott string on the gallops at Cheltenham racecourse on March 14, 2016 in Cheltenham, England. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)




1:30: MIN

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Morning Assemply

3:30: Nicholas Canyon

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50:Southfield Royale

5:30: Twelve Roses


1:30: MIN

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Morning Assemply

3:30: Annie Power

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50:Pont Alexandre

5:30: McKinley


1:30: Altidor

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Out Sam

3:30: Nicholas Canyon

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50: Native River

5:30: Willow's Saviour



1:30: MIN

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Kruzhlinin

3:30: Annie Power

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50: Noble Endeavor

5:30: Thomas Brown



1:30: MIN

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Un Temps Pour Tout

3:30: Identity Thief

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50: Southfield Royale

5:30: Willow's Saviour


1:30: Silver Concorde

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Shanahan's Turn

3:30: Annie Power

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50: Noble Endeavor

5:30: Ballyalton



1:30: Buveaur D'Air

2:10: Douvan

2:50: Morning Assembly

3:30: The New One

4:10: Vroum Vroum Mag

4:50: Southfield Royale

5:30: Aloomomo



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