If the odds are correct, it will be more walkover than war in three of next weekend’s All-Ireland football quarter-finals.
ublin 1/50 to overpower Cork (16/1); Derry 1/7 to beat Clare (11/2); Kerry 3/10 to record their third victory over Mayo (7/2) this year. That leaves Armagh (10/11) v Galway (6/5) as the only game where, according to the markets at least, the outcome is in doubt.
It’s not that simple of course. Odds reflect the past and an assumption that the future will remain the same. They often do but hopefully, for the sake of the championship, they will turn out to be wrong.
If not, it will lurch into the semi-finals without having done much to attract the word ‘memorable’ .
Derry, back as Ulster champions for the first time since 1998, and Clare, appearing in the quarter-finals for only the second time, won’t agree and nor should they.
They weren’t regarded as likely last-eight candidates at the start of play, but have negotiated their way by squeezing the most from the hands dealt to them.
From a novelty perspective, their first-ever championship clash is the pick of the quarter-finals, with both believing that they got the best possible draw.
Clare were happier to be paired with Derry than Kerry, Dublin or Galway while Derry would have chosen Clare ahead of Armagh, Mayo or even Cork.
The big worry for Derry is that having seen their stock soar as they powered through Ulster, their rating may be higher than is actually warranted. How good was this year’s Ulster Championship?
Apart from the final, which went to extra-time, it didn’t even have its usual run of close contests.
Winning margins in the other seven games ranged from four to 13 points, settling on an average of 8.3. It was scarcely competitive ferocity at its most intense.
That’s why Clare will believe they have a decent chance of shattering the odds. Cork may be similarly programmed but their prospects of achieving it against Dublin are beyond remote.
The demise of Cork football over the last decade has not just been bad for Leeside but it should be of concern to Croke Park too. That the largest county in the country has been in Divisions 2 and 3 for the past six seasons and beaten Division 1 opposition in the championship only once in the last nine years (Kerry in the 2020 Munster semi-final) is a shocking indictment.
Arriving in the quarter-finals is a boost, even if luck played a big role as they got there by beating Louth and Limerick, both of whom were in Division 3 this year.
Better teams than Cork (Tyrone, Donegal Monaghan, Kildare, Roscommon, Meath) were eliminated because they got tougher draws.
Cork’s luck ran out in the quarter-final draw and they now find themselves facing a Dublin team that’s driven by a ferocious determination to re-assert themselves. Cork will do well to run them to ten points.
Kerry v Mayo has been a great rivalry over last decade but has it come to an end? Yes, according to the odds, but they may be overvaluing the league final. Kerry’s demolition job has obviously hardened the view that they are well ahead of Mayo.
They certainly were that day, but Mayo have repeatedly proven in the past that once they build up summer momentum – often through the qualifiers – they become a different outfit.
They have had three tough games in the championship, unlike Kerry who were largely unchallenged by Cork and Limerick. It could leave them vulnerable.
Armagh v Galway is appealing at all levels, mainly because they are both capable of playing a very attractive brand of football.
Whether they showcase that on Sunday is, of course, an altogether different matter. If they do, it has all the ingredients for an open game, which probably means it will turn into a tight, dour affair.
Galway have to contend with a shocking Croke Park record since winning the 2001 All-Ireland final. They have won only two (v Kildare Division 2 final in 2017 and v Kerry ‘Super 8s’ 2018) of 18 league and championship games there over the past 20 years. Many of the defeats have been by sizeable margins.
It’s difficult to understand why that’s the case, especially for a county with a reputation for free-flowing football, which Croke Park’s broad expanse encourages.
Genial Tom was a man for all seasons
In an area with such a wide range of personalities as journalism, it’s unusual to find someone who remains universally popular. Tom O’Riordan, who has died, was in that rare group.
It wasn’t just that nobody had a bad word to say about him. More specifically, everyone had plenty of good words to say about a man who served this newspaper with great distinction as athletics correspondent and GAA writer.
I first got to know Tom when I started with the Irish Press Group in 1979, having been greeted by a warm smile and firm handshake in a GAA press box.
He took enormous pride in Kerry football but athletics was his true love, immersing himself totally in an area where he brought unrivalled expertise.
He was more than happy to share that knowledge, as I discovered at the Olympic Games in Moscow, Los Angeles, Seoul and Barcelona.
And when the day’s work was done there was no greater company than a man who possessed a great sense of fun and mischief.
May he rest in peace.
Too early to judge Tailteann Cup
The Tailteann Cup is enjoying a good first season but it’s too early to hail it as a wonderful success.
History shows that second-tier football competitions tend to start well, only to lose momentum. It happened with the All-Ireland ‘B’ championship which was launched in 1990. Despite being played in winter, it proved popular initially but lost its way as the decade progressed and was eventually scrapped after the 2000 final.
The next attempt at a secondary competition came in 2004. Rebranded as the Tommy Murphy Cup, it too had a good start but interest faded after a few seasons and it was scrapped at the end of 2008.
It remains to be seen if the Tailteann Cup suffers a similar fate. Already, there are calls for a third-tier competition on the basis that including all counties in the bottom 16 is unfair on some Division 4 teams.
I have an alternative suggestion. Allow the top four in Division 3 into the qualifiers and have 12 in the Tailteann Cup, thereby giving lower-ranked teams a better chance.
