Colm McCarthy

A patient with Covid-19 being treated in the ICU unit of Limerick Hopsital. Picture by Gerry Mooney

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Lockdown fatigue is real and should be taken into account

Twice during 2020, premature exits from lockdowns in European countries, designed to rescue economic activity and to restore personal freedoms, achieved neither objective. Instead, they have weakened public compliance.

People enjoy warm weather on the Pont des Arts bridge in Paris, France, last week. Photo: Getty

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Colm McCarthy Opinion What are the chances of another surge?

Extra public health restrictions, including curfews and school closures, are being imposed in France, Germany, Italy and in several other EU countries in response to a new surge in infections.

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Colm McCarthy: Ireland doesn't have its own atmosphere so plan to halve emissions will fail if others do not do the same

Burnishing a national self-image, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar re-baptised the country as 'Global Ireland' in a speech last year. Politicians and media have commenced, with the publication of the latest climate bill on Wednesday, the next round in a hopelessly parochial debate about climate policy. If the country has a serious global perspective, climate policy needs to be about foreign policy, not just about what can be done here.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Parochial response will not solve a global crisis

Burnishing a national self-image, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar re-baptised the country as 'Global Ireland' in a speech last year. Politicians and media have commenced, with the publication of the latest climate bill on Wednesday, the next round in a hopelessly parochial debate about climate policy. If the country has a serious global perspective, climate policy needs to be about foreign policy, not just about what can be done here.

A Worker with the Arbeiter Samariter Bund charity administers rapid antigen COVID tests to high school students at the Ehrenfried Walther von Tschirnhaus Gymnasium high school in Dresden, Germany. Photo: Jens Schlueter/Getty Images

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Explain rules that matter, and modify ones that don't

Governments in continental Europe are tightening rather than loosening restrictions. In this country, ministers and officials have been dialling down speculation about reopening the economy, and the chart should help to explain why.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion We must make sure the right people pay the price

Following the disastrous failure of management and supervision in the Irish banking system in the years leading up to the 2008 collapse, a referendum in October 2011 proposed extended powers for Oireachtas inquiries, the better to investigate what happened and to allocate corporate and personal responsibility.

'Neither the ICTU nor Ibec will have to stand for re-election, but Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party will have to account for their stewardship. Be choosy about partners' Photo: Gerry Mooney

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Government should choose its friends wisely as we emerge from Covid crisis

A blast from the past called Social Partnership, the fall-back system for running the country behind the curtain, is making a comeback. Never waste a good crisis.

UNEQUAL TREATMENT: Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, left, and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Michael McGrath. Photo: Gerry Mooney

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Colm McCarthy Opinion We may be all in this together, but some are in premium seats

If the first principle of economics is that resources are scarce, the first principle of politics is to pretend otherwise. Employment, and hence income for many households, has suffered severely from the pandemic, and there will be more pain, even in the best-case scenario. The Government has wisely let the deficit soar, to tide people over the emergency. But it has also loosened the purse strings generally, racking up long-term commitments which have nothing to do with Covid. The most recent example, a new pay round for the public service, is another mixed message: we are all in this together, but some have secured premium seats.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion If we want a serious climate policy, we need to accept the costs and trade-offs

A post-Covid strategy for economic policy is already in formation. The Government is reviewing the 2040 National Development Plan (NDP) and a revised version is due mid-year. The NDP, released early in 2018, is the framework for public capital investment out to 2040.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion If we want a serious climate policy, we need to accept the costs and trade-offs

A post-Covid strategy for economic policy is already in formation. The Government is reviewing the 2040 National Development Plan (NDP) and a revised version is due mid-year. The NDP, released early in 2018, is the framework for public capital investment out to 2040.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Any policy to revive economy must take risk of a fourth lockdown into account

At the end of May last year, European governments had been wrestling with the virus for around three months - only a few had taken major action before March.

Shuttered: Shops on Dublin's Grafton Street were forced to close by the pandemic. Photo: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Premature relaxation of restrictions will only serve to tighten Covid's grip

Since Covid is capable of unpredictable surges, European governments have found themselves pursuing stop-go policies. As the capacity of the hospitals is approached, governments resort to restrictive measures with high short-term economic costs. Without either a cure or a vaccine, there has been no alternative.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar. Photo: Brian Lawless/PA

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Colm McCarthy Opinion UK strain here shows travel to blame, no matter how Varadkar twists data

On RTÉ radio last Wednesday, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar was asked about restrictions on international travel. He noted (optimistically) that new infections had been running at 1,000 per day and went on to claim that the portion attributable to international travel was "very, very small, maybe as little as 1pc, maybe less".

Dublin's Grafton Street, still and shuttered. Photo: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Endless trade-off between lives and livelihoods won't win war on Covid

An obscure branch of macroeconomics is called the 'theory of economic policy'. It works like this. Governments have multiple objectives and they also have numerous policy levers.

'The preservation of a functioning hospital system is the immediate priority'

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Another premature reopening is a potent risk to be avoided at all costs

During October Belgium experienced Europe's most alarming escalation in new Covid cases while Irish officials were claiming, accurately, that incidence here had been falling faster than in other European countries.

Pat Kenny brings rigour to debate. Photo: Steve Humphreys

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Covid thrives in a welter of partisan views and agendas

Even for numerate people who breeze through honours maths, understanding the flood of numbers released by the pandemic is a challenge, and conflicting interpretations of the figures feed the confused response.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Christmas gamble failed and we're paying the terrible price now

The first wave of Covid-19 in Ireland provoked a policy response when new infections reached 34 per day. Pubs were closed on March 15 last year and a full lockdown, complete with a two-kilometre rule, was in place by March 27, when daily infections had reached 264.

‘TAKE BACK CONTROL’: Boris Johnson. Photo: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Britain can't deny that this is a hard Brexit and the cost remains to be seen

Relief at the conclusion of a post-Brexit trade deal, any deal, cannot conceal that this is a hard Brexit. It does only a little to contain the economic damage to the United Kingdom and to Ireland, the EU country most adversely affected.

US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi shows the card recording her Pfizer Covid vaccine shot. Photo: AP

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Taking short-cuts has left us further from recovery

As predicted, the lifting of restrictions announced by the Government just over three weeks ago, on November 27, has resulted in a resurgence of the virus. New infections have roughly doubled in the last couple of weeks and never fell to the 50 to 100 a day hinted to be the trigger for the relaxation at the end of November.

British Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove. Photo: PA

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Brexiteers cast perfidious foreigners as the villains in theatrics over a 'deal'

Outside of the farm sector, agreement on a minimal UK free-trade agreement with the EU makes little difference to the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland. The UK left the European Union on January 31 last, becoming a third country in the parlance of the trade negotiators.

'The increases in permanent expenditure identified by the Fiscal Council add up to an enormous increase in the burden of taxation.' Photo: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

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Colm McCarthy Opinion There is a Covid reckoning to be paid - and you will see it on your payslips

Kids should never be released unsupervised into a chocolate factory. This was the verdict delivered last week by the Fiscal Advisory Council, a kind of WhatsApp group for grown-ups charged with commenting on Government budget policy.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin last Friday unveiling the measures for exiting Level 5. Photo: Julien Behal

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Colm McCarthy Opinion We won't save Christmas by ignoring the wise men

A trio of media narratives about the fight against Covid-19 has become established. The first narrative is that courageous politicians have been battling to save the economy and society from destruction at the hands of uncaring medics.

RESEARCH: The high percentage efficacy of vaccines is important. Stock picture

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Scaled-down festive season is worth it in the long run

Most European governments have not succeeded in containing the second wave and lockdown measures are being intensified rather than relaxed in several countries.

'The medical experts have been expressing concern about the return of people from abroad for Christmas, and the United Kingdom has been one of Europe's weakest performers.'

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Half-time in lockdown and we're top in a weak league

HSE chief executive Paul Reid used a football analogy on Thursday to mark the first three weeks of the lockdown. It is only half-time, he cautioned, and you can blow a half-time lead if you get careless. Health officials are fond of a further football analogy - Ireland's position in the European league table.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion It is the political malaise in the UK that should most concern Irish politicians

The defeat of Trump will be greeted with relief in most European countries but hardly in the government of the United Kingdom, where the surprise victory of the Brexiteers in the referendum on June 23, 2016 foreshadowed Trump's capture of the White House the following November.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe (Brian Lawless/PA)

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Politicians should not push for flashy mega-projects just to grab headlines

Observing a stream of empty buses along Dublin's Leeson Street a few evenings ago, a friend rang with the query: "Who's going to pay for all this?"

'Despite deep economic links with China, infection in South Korea was controlled from the onset of the epidemic and new cases never topped 1,000 per day - that's the recent daily average in Ireland, which has one-tenth the population.'

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Refusal to follow Asian model makes zero sense

Last Monday Leo Varadkar described the lockdown measures, introduced by the Government after a two-week delay, as "a pre-emptive strike" against the virus. Had the measures been introduced when first advised by Nphet, they might more credibly have been described in those terms.

'Of the three possible exit strategies, Zero-Covid has been demonstrated to work in Asia, Let it Rip looks too risky and European governments have chosen See-Saw, led by the virus.' (stock photo)

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Colm McCarthy Opinion See-Saw, Let it Rip and Zero-Covid: three strategies but only one works

Unfortunately, the Nphet experts have been vindicated by the week's depressing spread of the virus. The Government made a mistake in refusing to face the music.

There is now a realisation in many European countries that the easing of restrictions by governments, and the coincident relaxation of public vigilance, was premature and has sparked the resurgence. Photo: Danny Lawson/PA Wire

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Long-term prognosis tips balance toward caution

In Ireland, as elsewhere in Europe, the number of new Covid cases is accelerating. The Irish curve for cumulative cases has assumed the slope it followed in mid and late March, propelling most European governments into the imposition of severe lockdown measures.

Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe TD. Photo: Collins Dublin/Gareth Chaney

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Donohoe's astute remarks ring true - Ireland needs to balance the books

On Thursday, Paschal Donohoe addressed the Budget Oversight Committee of Dáil Eireann about the measures which will be presented a week on Tuesday. He said: "What we will need to do is to demonstrate that - once the worst of the pandemic has passed - we are committed to balancing the books over the medium term. This can be done in a timely manner, consistent with the dual needs of supporting the economy as well as ensuring fiscal sustainability".