Colm McCarthy

Dublin's Grafton Street, still and shuttered. Photo: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Endless trade-off between lives and livelihoods won't win war on Covid

An obscure branch of macroeconomics is called the 'theory of economic policy'. It works like this. Governments have multiple objectives and they also have numerous policy levers.

'The preservation of a functioning hospital system is the immediate priority'

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Another premature reopening is a potent risk to be avoided at all costs

During October Belgium experienced Europe's most alarming escalation in new Covid cases while Irish officials were claiming, accurately, that incidence here had been falling faster than in other European countries.

Pat Kenny brings rigour to debate. Photo: Steve Humphreys

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Covid thrives in a welter of partisan views and agendas

Even for numerate people who breeze through honours maths, understanding the flood of numbers released by the pandemic is a challenge, and conflicting interpretations of the figures feed the confused response.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Christmas gamble failed and we're paying the terrible price now

The first wave of Covid-19 in Ireland provoked a policy response when new infections reached 34 per day. Pubs were closed on March 15 last year and a full lockdown, complete with a two-kilometre rule, was in place by March 27, when daily infections had reached 264.

‘TAKE BACK CONTROL’: Boris Johnson. Photo: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Britain can't deny that this is a hard Brexit and the cost remains to be seen

Relief at the conclusion of a post-Brexit trade deal, any deal, cannot conceal that this is a hard Brexit. It does only a little to contain the economic damage to the United Kingdom and to Ireland, the EU country most adversely affected.

US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi shows the card recording her Pfizer Covid vaccine shot. Photo: AP

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Taking short-cuts has left us further from recovery

As predicted, the lifting of restrictions announced by the Government just over three weeks ago, on November 27, has resulted in a resurgence of the virus. New infections have roughly doubled in the last couple of weeks and never fell to the 50 to 100 a day hinted to be the trigger for the relaxation at the end of November.

British Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove. Photo: PA

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Brexiteers cast perfidious foreigners as the villains in theatrics over a 'deal'

Outside of the farm sector, agreement on a minimal UK free-trade agreement with the EU makes little difference to the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland. The UK left the European Union on January 31 last, becoming a third country in the parlance of the trade negotiators.

'The increases in permanent expenditure identified by the Fiscal Council add up to an enormous increase in the burden of taxation.' Photo: Brian Lawless/PA Wire

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Colm McCarthy Opinion There is a Covid reckoning to be paid - and you will see it on your payslips

Kids should never be released unsupervised into a chocolate factory. This was the verdict delivered last week by the Fiscal Advisory Council, a kind of WhatsApp group for grown-ups charged with commenting on Government budget policy.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin last Friday unveiling the measures for exiting Level 5. Photo: Julien Behal

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Colm McCarthy Opinion We won't save Christmas by ignoring the wise men

A trio of media narratives about the fight against Covid-19 has become established. The first narrative is that courageous politicians have been battling to save the economy and society from destruction at the hands of uncaring medics.

RESEARCH: The high percentage efficacy of vaccines is important. Stock picture

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Scaled-down festive season is worth it in the long run

Most European governments have not succeeded in containing the second wave and lockdown measures are being intensified rather than relaxed in several countries.

'The medical experts have been expressing concern about the return of people from abroad for Christmas, and the United Kingdom has been one of Europe's weakest performers.'

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Half-time in lockdown and we're top in a weak league

HSE chief executive Paul Reid used a football analogy on Thursday to mark the first three weeks of the lockdown. It is only half-time, he cautioned, and you can blow a half-time lead if you get careless. Health officials are fond of a further football analogy - Ireland's position in the European league table.

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Colm McCarthy Opinion It is the political malaise in the UK that should most concern Irish politicians

The defeat of Trump will be greeted with relief in most European countries but hardly in the government of the United Kingdom, where the surprise victory of the Brexiteers in the referendum on June 23, 2016 foreshadowed Trump's capture of the White House the following November.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe (Brian Lawless/PA)

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Politicians should not push for flashy mega-projects just to grab headlines

Observing a stream of empty buses along Dublin's Leeson Street a few evenings ago, a friend rang with the query: "Who's going to pay for all this?"

'Despite deep economic links with China, infection in South Korea was controlled from the onset of the epidemic and new cases never topped 1,000 per day - that's the recent daily average in Ireland, which has one-tenth the population.'

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Refusal to follow Asian model makes zero sense

Last Monday Leo Varadkar described the lockdown measures, introduced by the Government after a two-week delay, as "a pre-emptive strike" against the virus. Had the measures been introduced when first advised by Nphet, they might more credibly have been described in those terms.

'Of the three possible exit strategies, Zero-Covid has been demonstrated to work in Asia, Let it Rip looks too risky and European governments have chosen See-Saw, led by the virus.' (stock photo)

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Colm McCarthy Opinion See-Saw, Let it Rip and Zero-Covid: three strategies but only one works

Unfortunately, the Nphet experts have been vindicated by the week's depressing spread of the virus. The Government made a mistake in refusing to face the music.

There is now a realisation in many European countries that the easing of restrictions by governments, and the coincident relaxation of public vigilance, was premature and has sparked the resurgence. Photo: Danny Lawson/PA Wire

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Long-term prognosis tips balance toward caution

In Ireland, as elsewhere in Europe, the number of new Covid cases is accelerating. The Irish curve for cumulative cases has assumed the slope it followed in mid and late March, propelling most European governments into the imposition of severe lockdown measures.

Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe TD. Photo: Collins Dublin/Gareth Chaney

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Donohoe's astute remarks ring true - Ireland needs to balance the books

On Thursday, Paschal Donohoe addressed the Budget Oversight Committee of Dáil Eireann about the measures which will be presented a week on Tuesday. He said: "What we will need to do is to demonstrate that - once the worst of the pandemic has passed - we are committed to balancing the books over the medium term. This can be done in a timely manner, consistent with the dual needs of supporting the economy as well as ensuring fiscal sustainability".

WHEN IN ROME: The Leonardo da Vinci International Airport at Fiumicino has won an award for best Covid-ready airport. Photo: REUTERS/Remo Casilli

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Travel policy inflicts damage while offering no protection

Last week the news bulletins featured two utterly discordant messages to the public about the fight to contain Covid. The first was a series of anguished appeals from Ronan Glynn and other public health officials to cut back on socialising. The spike in cases is serious and their concern was palpable. The R number must be brought back below one and this can only be achieved if people voluntarily rein in their social contacts with friends, neighbours, and strangers.

Tourists will be able to travel to other counties when they arrive in Dublin airport

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Government needs to address aviation industry balance sheet

Scheduled traffic at Irish airports is dominated by two airlines - Aer Lingus and Ryanair. About the only good news from the aviation sector last week was the success of Ryanair in selling about €400m in new equity and $1bn in bonds, while the parent group of Aer Lingus, the International Airlines Group, raised €2.7bn in a rights issue.

Paul Reid, chief executive of the HSE, has said eliminating Covid-19 is not realistic. Photo: Gareth Chaney/ Collins

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Leaders must zero in on Covid elimination policy

In the Dáil last Thursday, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan announced the Government would reveal a longer-term strategy for dealing with the pandemic on September 14.

Net Zero How We Stop Causing Climate Change

Our climate change failings, and how we can do better

Dieter Helm is one of Britain's foremost experts on energy economics and he has written a terrific book on the next agenda item once the Covid emergency has passed. It is also an angry book: Helm believes that the last 30 years, since the science first clarified the extent of the climate threat, have been wasted. Emissions should have been stabilised many years ago and placed on a downward trajectory. Instead, they have grown inexorably and 2020 will see only a brief and fortuitous interruption.

DESERTED: An empty departures hall at Dublin Airport on the August bank holiday weekend. Photo: Steve Humphreys

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Scale back wage support or zombie firms won't fail

Forecasts of a quick and V-shaped recovery made earlier this year were not impossible but looked optimistic. They may as well be abandoned altogether now, given the reimposition of restrictions in so many major countries.

An empty Terminal 1 Departures Hall at Dublin Airport at the end of July. Photo: Steve Humphreys

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Planes and trains dropped for automobiles as sector suffers

Whenever the new Government gets around to focusing on medium- and long-term policy, the transport sector will top the priority list.

'Importantly, the three Irish-owned banks, AIB, Bank of Ireland and Permanent TSB have, in their recent announcements of results for the first half of 2020, taken a couple of billion in provisions against loan losses that have not yet crystallised.' (stock image)

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Bank coffers could rally in a few years; either that or Covid reckoning beckons

Banks are fragile institutions: they have certain, and usually short-term, liabilities, mostly in the form of deposits owed to customers, while their assets are mostly loans of longer term and uncertain of repayment.

POLITE: Acting Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn recommended Google to Dáil deputies on Thursday. Photo: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Public houses plus a virus are bad for public health

Ronan Glynn, the Acting Chief Medical Officer, displaying admirable politeness, recommended Google to Dáil deputies at his Thursday media briefing. He was responding to queries from the electorate's champions, demanding evidence (from him) that bars help to spread the coronavirus. Google, I should explain, is a search engine available on things called laptops, and it directs users to information on things called websites. TDs get free laptops.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe. Picture: PA

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Colm McCarthy Opinion The Covid reckoning is looming and world leaders have to face it

Six months into the Covid crisis, governments are having to acknowledge that there will be a reckoning - the public inquiry just announced in the United Kingdom or an unavoidable date with the voters for Donald Trump in November.

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe arrives at Dublin Castle for a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. Photo: PA

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Magic money's hard to find - and middle classes don't need it

LAST Thursday's July Measures, the latest instalment in the Government's response to the Covid downturn, comprise mainly time extensions to schemes already in place. The crisis is not V-shaped, is not going away and the time extensions make sense.

CODOLOGY: Pearse Doherty. Photo: Tom Burke

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Colm McCarthy Opinion There was never any Apple magic money tree, as Pearse should know

Sinn Fein's Pearse Doherty, whose party has taken charge of the Complaints Department for the duration of the new Government, managed to get the Apple judgment 180 degrees wrong last week.

'Ireland’s prospects have been substantially diminished over the last six months. The willingness of governments around Europe to expand budget deficits, and of the European Central Bank to support the debt markets, has not turned the Covid recession into a release from economic reality.' Stock photo: PA

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Recovery can't be delivered without an element of pain

No soft option for the response to the Covid recession goes without a champion. The Government, the banks, the insurance companies, the European Union, all presumed to possess resources to burn, will ride to the rescue of firms in trouble and the assistance forthcoming will depend solely on self-assessed need.

TURBULENCE AHEAD: A second wave of the virus could have a detrimental effect on the aviation business

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Colm McCarthy Opinion Gamble on great getaway risks landing us in trouble

When a boxer survives a heavy blow and beats the count, it is the next punch that often ends the contest. That could be the outcome for many firms in Ireland and elsewhere in Europe if there is a renewed outbreak of Covid-19, and there have been worrying new surges of infection in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, around Lisbon in Portugal and Leicester in England.