Tuesday 23 January 2018

Fine Gael rise in popularity not all down to Leo 'bounce'

Government satisfaction is at a six-year high, but the appointment of a new Taoiseach tells only half the story, writes Paul Moran

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. Photo: Getty Images
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. Photo: Getty Images

Paul Moran

This latest Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown Poll, conducted up until Friday, captured the public mood as the Dail broke up for the summer recess for the first time under the tenure of the new Taoiseach.

Compared to our previous comparable poll in February, it would seem that there are dramatic shifts in opinion; Fine Gael is up five points to 30pc, while Fianna Fail has shed four to 29pc. A net swing of nine points. For some, this will be the Leo 'bounce' factor. This argument, however, may be overly simplistic.

Sinn Fein remains stubbornly rooted at 20pc, while Labour has nudged up one to 7pc. Among other parties/Independents, there has been little movement. Interestingly, Solidarity/PBP, in the spotlight because of the Jobstown acquittal, has not gained any traction - while its electoral base is quite localised, a rating of 1pc suggests that the public sees more noise than substance in its policies.

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