Wednesday 15 August 2018

Ireland 2040: a new beginning

One outcome seems likely by 2040, however: the history of economic cycles dictate that there will be another downturn, indeed a recession within that period, perhaps sooner rather than later if the worst outcomes of Brexit are realised. Photo: Stephen Collins/Collins Photos
One outcome seems likely by 2040, however: the history of economic cycles dictate that there will be another downturn, indeed a recession within that period, perhaps sooner rather than later if the worst outcomes of Brexit are realised. Photo: Stephen Collins/Collins Photos
Editorial

Editorial

Ireland will be a different place in 2040 than it is today, just as it was very different 20 years ago. The National Planning Framework and Ten-Year Capital Plan, announced to such fanfare last week, is a reasonable attempt by the Government to anticipate what that Ireland will be like and to prepare for it accordingly.

While the plan is of necessity evidence-based, it is set against events as yet unknown, and inevitably, also rooted in certain assumptions and predictions which may not turn out to be entirely accurate. When we look back to 1998, who could have predicted a boom of the nature of the Celtic Tiger and a bust as ruinous as the subsequent lost decade?

One outcome seems likely by 2040, however: the history of economic cycles dictate that there will be another downturn, indeed a recession within that period, perhaps sooner rather than later if the worst outcomes of Brexit are realised.

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