Nearly 27,000 new housing units will be delivered this year, new figures from Banking and Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) tell us. The reality is that this is not encouraging news, because it shows a fall back on the record figure of 30,000 homes finished last year.
ánaiste Micheál Martin argued last week that the Government had “turned the corner” of the housing crisis over the past year, and little by little what he has acknowledged as a “housing crisis” would be resolved. At the same time, the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, said that there was a shortage of 250,000 houses across the country.
This is a legacy of under-investment by both the public and private sectors in the building of new homes. It also reflects a failure to recognise how quickly the economy and population would grow.
We now have ample warning that this shortage of new homes risks having a detrimental effect on our prosperity as a nation. These latest BPFI figures did show that housing supply recovered significantly last year after building was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021.
The nearly 30,000 new homes completed last year was an increase of 45pc on 2021 and was up 41pc on building figures for 2019. Last year finished strongly, with over 9,000 homes completed in the last quarter.
We could hope that the experience can be repeated in the coming year as we are only now heading into the second economic quarter, but that seems less likely.
There was more encouraging news for Dublin, which experienced the greatest rise in completions last year, at over 65pc. Most of these were accounted for by apartments, which comprised over 30pc of completions in the capital in 2022. But we must remember that the need for new homes in Dublin is at its most acute.
Overall, this BPFI report signals that strong home building and mortgage approvals this year risk being slowed by ever-increasing building costs and interest rate increases in the short to medium term. The report comes as the European Central Bank will tomorrow meet to consider another interest rate rise of perhaps 0.5pc.
Irish people are generally fair-minded, and will acknowledge that miracles cannot be worked in resolving a crisis that has grown out of over a decade of neglect. But people’s patience is running out as many discover they cannot even find a place to rent, let alone contemplate buying.
Growth in so-called mortgage activity can also be misleading as figures are bumped by people switching their provider or topping up their loan for one reason or another.
Overall, the sad reality is that Mr Martin’s talk about “turning the corner” in the housing crisis looks drearily like similar comments from Brian Lenihan when presenting his 2009 Budget in the Dáil. Less than a year later, Ireland was being forced into a bailout under the close supervision of the EU, ECB and IMF.
Let us hope this predicted reduction in home completions does not become a reality.