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When, and how, are we going to get out of this?

Conor Skehan


The method and timing of hitting the restart button depends on complicated and overlapping factors, writes Conor Skehan

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Garda officers talk with members of the public as they conduct checks on pedestrians and motorists on O'Connell Street. Photo: AFP

Garda officers talk with members of the public as they conduct checks on pedestrians and motorists on O'Connell Street. Photo: AFP

AFP via Getty Images

Garda officers talk with members of the public as they conduct checks on pedestrians and motorists on O'Connell Street. Photo: AFP

The Government will soon need to announce a date for a national restart. This could be as soon as May 30 and as late as July 30. Are we prepared for this?

The Government will need to be able to show that it has a clear and credible restart plan because many sectors will need to be ready in advance. For most, this will require about two weeks - but some may require up to six weeks. This means that some preparation may need to start as early as next week.

Flattening a curve also means lengthening its duration. The US and the UK will be devastated by the health effects of this crisis, because of their slow and poorly managed early response, resulting in a short sharp peak for these countries. Perversely, they are likely to be able to restart their economy earlier than a careful country like Ireland.