Memories are short and hospital row will be forgotten by election time

The Ireland Thinks poll published here two weeks ago showed a two-to-one majority dissatisfied with the proposed ownership structure of the new hospital.

Health Minister Stephen Donnelly offered more time for reflection and refused to “rule anything out” when asked at the Oireachtas Health Committee if there could be fresh negotiations with the St Vincent’s Hospital Group.

It all looked like it was teeing up for more fudge and delay to be offered up at the altar of consensus.

The decision to go ahead caused upheaval in the Government parties last week, including the loss of two Green TDs, paring back the Government’s slim Dáil majority even further.

No one in Government claimed the proposal was ideal, but the decision caused Twitter to erupt with vigorous objections that the Government has betrayed women and sold out to the church.

Fine Gael in particular has shown itself uncomfortable getting on the wrong side of the right-on crowd on Twitter. But even it must have realised the decision to push on was the politically smart thing to do.

Although there is vocal opposition to this, with one friend of mine claiming that it is all her circle are talking about, that friend and her circle were never going to vote for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Those parties have lost no votes.

The Greens may have lost some votes, but in all likelihood they lost them the day the party decided to form part of the Government.

It is highly unlikely that the NMH will feature as a motivating reason for voters’ decisions in 2025. Abortion, which was a big issue in 2016, was only cited by 2pc of voters as an issue informing their vote. They were already naturally aligned to parties that sided with them on the issue.

It is unlikely that many people will be thinking about this issue in a month, never mind by the next election. If Winston Churchill can lose an election a few months after winning a war that saved Britain from Nazi occupation, anyone can lose an election. In 1945 British voters had moved on. That’s what people do.

Just as parties can’t dwell on their success, they should not allow their relative failures to remain in the public consciousness. Delaying the decision further would have only meant the NMH row dragged on. It would have taken up Government energy, time and attention, without any realistic prospect of improving the outcome.

Many of the opponents’ calls for further consultation were no doubt sincere, but giving in to them would have played into opposition parties’ agendas. It would have kept this story in the news, and more importantly, it would have associated the Government with failure.

A failure to get on with this would add to costs and give the Government a reputation for incompetence.

And in the event that there is a problem with the deal signed with the St Vincent’s Hospital Group — and I doubt there will be — these problems are only likely to emerge well after most of Cabinet has left the stage.

That might be a cynical approach, but if the Government believes this is the best deal available, there is no point in delaying for a problem it will never see.

But the row has inflicted some damage. The loss of two TDs must marginally increase the possibility of an election. Suspending Neasa Hourigan and Patrick Costello for six months was a harsh punishment, especially for a vote that didn’t matter.

The Government had already taken the decision to concede defeat on the Sinn Féin motion, so Hourigan and Costello’s votes made no real difference.

Giving the two TDs who, after Arts and Tourism Minister Catherine Martin, were always seen as the most likely to defect, six months’ freedom from the party whip might make them used to it. They could enjoy the experience of not having to vote for stuff they are instinctively against.

So the Government’s majority might be permanently reduced. Paradoxically, that could strengthen the Government.

By removing the more militant members of the Green parliamentary party there should be fewer tensions within Government.

As well as its aversion to controversy, another notable and surprising feature of this Government is how few of the internal rows spill over into the public domain. It is the least fractious coalition in my memory. So the NMH decision may have made a 2025 election more likely rather than less.

Eoin O’Malley teaches politics and public policy at Dublin City University.