Joe Biden treads fine diplomatic line as he keeps European allies on board after Donald Trump’s neglect

Mr Biden does not lead a nation at war but you can be sure that, had Kyiv’s forces crumbled, Nato fractured and the West retreated in the face of a newly emboldened Russia, the blame would have been laid at his door.

One year on, we have a revitalised Nato, a diminished Russia and talk of pan-European Leopard tank battalions for Ukraine.

There is a reasonable argument that Mr Biden has played a difficult hand with skill and vigilance.

Washington’s overriding concern has been to avoid direct combat between US and Russian forces.

The potential for nuclear war through miscalculation, accident or malevolence made that the priority.

Mr Biden managed to thread that diplomatic needle with nuance, understanding and compromise.

As the war began, his credibility was in tatters after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in October 2021.

By February 2022, Mr Biden learnt from his security top brass that the threat of a full-scale Russian invasion was real.

He was shown where the Russians would attack and told it would be a “shock and awe” assault on the whole of Ukraine.

His fundamental position from then on was that the US must not do anything unilaterally. Behind the scenes, work began to rebuild the trust of allies and it was at times fraught.

European officials were still emerging from the diplomatic froideur of the Trump years, and the spectre of the flawed US intelligence on Iraq still lingered.

Many simply did not believe Vladimir Putin would invade.

According to US officials, the UK was one of the few allies that did.

A US diplomatic offensive was launched “We started showing our allies we were taking them seriously and incorporating them in our planning,” one former US defence official said. ​

“We went on these road shows with intelligence and told allies, ‘look, this attack is going to happen’... it was like the Cold War again... we were trusted.”

Inevitable fractures emerged but in April last year Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, held the first of what would become monthly allied meetings at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

As energy prices soared in Europe, the message was that sanctions were crippling Moscow and now was not the time to wobble.

In addition to divisions among allies, Mr Biden faced differing priorities within his own administration.

The Pentagon, the State Department, and Jake Sullivan, Mr Biden’s national security adviser, sometimes had different priorities.

“There was a lot of internal debate,” said one former official. “What’s the end game, is it a forever war, do we give them the tools to get Russia out of Crimea, do we cut a deal now or let this play out?”

An early disagreement came over the plan to send Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.

As “decider-in-chief”, Mr Biden was swayed by the caution of his military and the idea was ditched.

However, he later overruled those same advisers to send Patriot air defence batteries.

Rows about tanks followed, with Mr Biden relenting to provide “political cover” for Berlin.

“Biden’s an old-school transatlanticist who understands doing the small things to show your leadership,” said Jim Townsend, former US deputy secretary of defence. “He is leading the allies, and the allies want him to lead.”

From the outside, the decision-making process has seemed like wading through treacle but to bring Ukraine’s supporters to the position where many tens of billions of dollars have been sent or pledged to see Kyiv prevail – and to convince Putin of the folly of any sort of repeat effort – has been a remarkable achievement.

There have been a few missteps, such as on tanks, but no stumbles.

It is worth asking if, had Donald Trump been re-elected in 2020, would he have built and sustained such a response?

This war has a long way to go and there is no guarantee Ukraine will prevail, but the international community can take heart, having held firm against steep odds, provocation and a backdrop of nuclear rhetoric.