The pandemic and its consequences may be getting all the attention - but there is an awful lot else happening in the world right now. Much of what's happening will have consequences for the people of this island. Most of those consequences will not be good.
ook at a map of Ireland and Europe: in almost every direction - east, south and west - the world is becoming less stable and less democratic. The pandemic has caused the biggest global economic contraction on record and, though by now almost clichéd to say, that is causing even more instability and a further weakening of democracy.
Let's start this gloomy survey in the west. The polarisation of American society is gathering pace. Extremist ideologies are becoming more popular. The extreme right and the extreme left are feeding off each other.
The two great political parties are increasingly influenced by these ideologies. It is unlikely that Americans will move back towards the moderate centre, regardless of who wins next month's elections. Never has the winner-takes-all presidential system seem less suited to underlying political conditions.
As Ed Luce, the Financial Times' man in Washington DC, told me recently on a webinar at the Institute of International and European Affairs, a second term would result in "Trump times three" compared with his first victory four years ago. Should US president Donald Trump recover from Covid and win a second (and final) term, the uncertainty on many issues that he has generated or exacerbated would become more extreme.
Such uncertainty would be bad for Ireland's two-way relationship with the superpower. It would also be bad for US-EU relations, further affecting this country's economy, given how integrated it is with both sides of the Atlantic.
A victory for his rival Joe Biden is being prayed for in Ireland and across most of Europe among those who practice statecraft. A 'normal' US presidency would certainly remove the huge level of uncertainty and unpredictability that Trump has generated for allies and adversaries alike. The prospects for transatlantic co-operation - on everything from addressing climate change to pushing back against China's growing hyper- assertiveness - would improve almost immeasurably.
But it will not be back to business as usual if Biden wins. Much of corporate America is fearful of a Democratic party that has swerved sharply to the left, not least on trading freely with other countries. A protectionist America is certainly not in Ireland's interests - it is our largest national export market, and new barriers into that market would have painful consequences for Irish jobs.
Thankfully, amid the gloom, there are some potential upsides. If a Biden administration and a Democrat-controlled congress were to introduce measures that businesses didn't like, companies could exercise their exit option. US corporations already do a huge amount of business in Ireland and some have relocated their headquarters here. Capital fleeing big and grasping government in Washington would find a welcome home in Ireland.
To the east, opportunities are few and threats multiplying. Russia is becoming ever more disruptive. Its interference in the internal affairs of countries, including Ireland, is a growing concern.
This country's data hub status is a real vulnerability. The threat of the sort of full-scale cyberattack other countries have suffered is real. Ireland's neutrality, to which many people feel attached, is of little interest to the sort of countries that launch cyberattacks on other countries. Indeed, our non-membership of Nato, which has a mutual defence clause, makes Ireland a softer target and one that is in no position to disincentivise attacks with threats of retaliation.
Russia has few interests in Ireland, and limited resources to pursue those that exist. China is another matter. It is becoming a global power. Its interests are going global too. As it is on course to overtake the US as the world's largest economy, it increasingly has the resources to pursue its interests to the ends of the earth.
Beijing is using all means available, including espionage, to advance its interests everywhere. Ireland is not treated exceptionally. Having taken to describing China as a 'strategic rival', last Friday, EU leaders again talked tougher towards Beijing than they once did, including on giving European business in China the same market access that Chinese ones have in Europe. They also raised developments in Hong Kong and the treatment of minorities, however meekly.
Turkey is one of the handful of countries with which Democratic Europe will always have a strategic relationship. A huge, partly European country, it is the gateway to one of the world's most unstable regions. Its autocratic leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, knows that he can send millions of refugees into Europe if he chooses. He exploits that power relentlessly and in multiple ways.
One such way is Turkey's energy exploration in the territorial waters of two EU nations: Cyprus and Greece. Turkey's behaviour in the region has caused tensions in the eastern Mediterranean to rise to levels last seen in the 1970s when it invaded Cyprus and carved out an ethnic Turkish enclave in the north of the island. Greece, too, has a long history of military clashes with its bigger neighbour.
In dealing with Turkish incursions, both countries expected the sort of solidarity from other EU members that Ireland has enjoyed in dealing with its own much bigger, non-EU neighbour.
When it was not forthcoming, Cyprus vetoed EU sanctions on the dictatorial Belarusian regime. That was resolved at the end of last week when the bloc's leaders collectively came down squarely in favour of their fellow member countries.
Most European leaders fear a wave of refugees of the kind that washed over Europe in 2015 much more than they do a no-deal Brexit. This partly explains why EU cohesion on the latter matter has been so unusually strong.
It was in evidence again last week when the EU launched (largely symbolic) legal proceedings against the UK after the British government won parliamentary support for laws that could breach the Brexit deal agreed 12 months ago.
Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney declared from the US last week that Ireland would not be 'collateral damage' in the Brexit process. It is unclear what such statements are designed to achieve. These are akin to man waving his fist at a storm and telling it that it will not damage his house. The hard reality is that the exit of our nearest neighbour from Europe's quasi-federal system of government was always going to be a strategic nightmare for Ireland. It was always going to cause damage.
Limiting that damage will be a challenge for this Government and its successors for as far into an uncertain future as one can see.
