History will view National Maternity Hospital row as where the end began for Coalition

The events of last week, in my view, make it more likely the Government will not run its full term.

Toward the end of this year it will be halfway through the Coalition’s allotted five years — always a time when TDs turn their minds to the next election.

The removal of the whip from Hourigan and Costello for six months reduces the Government’s majority in the 160-seat Dáil to the bare minimum of one: 80 versus 79. The Ceann Comhairle has a casting vote.

The loss is being played down by the Government, which believes the pair will support it from the outside, and that it can also rely on several Independents in a pinch to see it over the line.

That may be so — but it depends on what the “pinch” is. And there are a few pinches coming up in the next six months to a year, mostly related to the impact of global events on the economy.

And then there are always unforeseen events. 

There are no major imbalances in Ireland’s economy, so it is not a good idea to talk up the prospects of a recession. But still, neither is it good to ignore the glaring realities ahead.

Last week the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, warned finance leaders to prepare for multiple inflationary shocks.

Citing mounting pressures on energy and food prices from Russia’s war in Ukraine, supply chain disruption and cost pressures caused by China’s zero-Covid policies, she said it was becoming harder for central banks to bring down inflation without causing recessions.

The Greens’ leader Eamon Ryan has said he believes his two TDs will not break ranks again. He may be right, but should not bank on it.

Hourigan and Costello are expected to continue to support the Government from outside the Greens’ parliamentary party.

However, once a rebel gets a taste for rebellion, they can always find another cause — and there will be nothing but “causes” in the next six months, notably in and around the budget this autumn, which is likely to provide one.

The wider issue, though, is not necessarily what Hourigan and Costello do next. Rather, it is the licence their decision to support Sinn Féin in the Dáil last week will give to others, particularly Independents but also Government TDs.

Now, a TD voting for an election is like a turkey voting for Christmas — usually they seek to avoid going to the polls at all costs.

But with the Government’s majority wafer thin, interest groups will know what pressure points to press — and when.

The Solidarity TD Mick Barry put his finger on it last week when he said the Government was now “significantly more vulnerable to pressure”.

He believed pressure would grow from people “hard hit by the cost of living crisis”. And he would not be wrong.

You have to wonder how solid the Government will turn out to be in the face of growing wage demands and possible strike action — not to mention soaring energy costs when household gas supplies are turned back later in the year, and the bills start to roll in.

Add to that the housing crisis, which will become particularly acute this summer when the Government’s quick fixes on the Ukrainian refugee crisis begin to unravel. The prospect of a significant, and regrettable, public backlash against Ukrainians who are perceived to be in competition for social and affordable housing should not be underestimated.

Let’s just say, there is a winter of discontent looming.

There is another intangible but no less relevant concept to consider when assessing the stability of the Government: the career politician.

As the Government reaches half term, ahead of a handover in December from Micheál Martin to Leo Varadkar, TDs in both parties will be busily eyeing their own prospects and the next election.

The prospect of promotion will end for many — a personal blow, which always gives rise to a bit of sniping from the long grass.

Discussions around Martin’s future — he will want to stay in cabinet and as Fianna Fáil leader — will also cause discombobulation in Fianna Fáil, and has the potential to lead to a walkout or two on whatever issue of the day proves most suitable.

All it takes is another Marc MacSharry.

But it is decisions the Government will have to make, or not make, in the teeth of inflation and on the cost of living crisis which will surely rock the boat most.

Your average career politician has no little personal ambition and a strong commitment to his or herself — coupled with a narrow occupational background and narrow life experience. Now when they assess that the time and issue is right, let’s say in a year to 18 months’ time, they have a precedent to follow in Hourigan and Costello.

Political party discipline ain’t what it used to be…

As it happens, the same career politician will have no compunction about going into power with any other party in the Dáil after an election caused by their own fit of pique.

One way or the other, as the man said, there are tricky times ahead.