By the time yesterday's economic forecasts were published by the European Commission, most EU economies were starting to emerge from lockdown, so it matters less where they think the trough might have been than what they think the recovery will look like.
What is striking is the uniformity of forecasts for next year. The Commission and the Department of Finance may disagree on the severity of this year's recession, but they are in lock step on the recovery next year and posit 6pc, pretty much what the International Monetary Fund has pencilled in too.
That may not be the "V-shaped" recovery that most economists were hoping for just a few weeks ago, but it does imply a pretty rapid turnaround.
The Commission expects domestic demand here to do most of the heavy lifting and to contribute 5.5pc points of the 6.1pc rebound next year.
This is important because it means the Government can start cutting - "tapering" is the word it prefers - the unemployment supports for 1.1 million workers sooner and more drastically if there is a rapid economic rebound.
The problem is that the evidence so far suggests that consumers are much less confident as they emerge from the lockdown.
While industrial output can rebound quickly, the recovery in consumption will be far slower.
Having gone into lockdown first and emerged first with an easing of restrictions in March, data from China is providing the first indication of what might happen. Retail sales there were still falling by almost 16pc in March.
"The evidence so far is that certain sectors may get a lift. In Wuhan, it's car sales. Danes appear to have rushed out to hairdressers and Austrians to garden centres, but the nature of this rebound in spending may not be universal when more businesses open," wrote HSBC economist James Pomeroy this week.
The reason is not hard to fathom - fear of catching coronavirus for which there is still no vaccine.
In Denmark over the week to April 24, public transport use was up to only 40pc of normal levels but car travel was back up to 90pc, based on Apple's mobility data.
If consumers are too afraid to go to shopping centres or have a drink in a café, there is not much point in forcing workers back into jobs that really do not yet exist.
If income supports are removed too early or are cut back when there are no jobs to go to, the economy is not going to be helped by cutting back wage supports, which is what the current debate in Government seems to be about.
To be sure, it is not going to come cheap to pay support to keep people at home for longer and the Exchequer Returns published on Tuesday showed the Department of Social Protection's budget spending had surged by €1.7bn, almost 50pc, by the end of April from a year ago.
In analysis by the department published this week, given that the Pandemic Unemployment Payment is €350 per week, this amounts to a replacement rate of 75.9pc for the salaries of individuals it classifies as the most severely affected by lockdown.
The department notes that, although there is no accepted threshold in terms of a rate that "constitutes a disincentive to work", it was "prudent to pay particular attention to replacement rates of 70pc or above" and the situation for the most affected "warrants careful monitoring".
Given the risks remain firmly tilted to the downside, it may be better to wait before cutting State payments on health grounds and to support the eventual economic revival.