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Fear factor can't be traded off in Covid recovery

David Chance



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By the time yesterday's economic forecasts were published by the European Commission, most EU economies were starting to emerge from lockdown, so it matters less where they think the trough might have been than what they think the recovery will look like.

What is striking is the uniformity of forecasts for next year. The Commission and the Department of Finance may disagree on the severity of this year's recession, but they are in lock step on the recovery next year and posit 6pc, pretty much what the International Monetary Fund has pencilled in too.

That may not be the "V-shaped" recovery that most economists were hoping for just a few weeks ago, but it does imply a pretty rapid turnaround.