Everything points to a Scottish ‘date with fate’ which will have major impact here

We are just 17 days from a crucial election for Scotland’s home rule parliament on Thursday, May 6. All signs are that it will return a majority in the 129-seat assembly in Edinburgh which favours a second referendum on Scottish independence.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson argues that the 55pc defeat for independence in September 2014 still stands for a full generation. He has cited the example of Brexit, voted down by UK voters in 1975, and not revisited again until the 2016 plebiscite now set to be the trigger for so much change.

Johnson has no hope of sustaining that line and he will be under immense pressure to give his necessary permission for a new Scottish independence referendum. This is even more stressed by findings of a new UK-wide opinion survey by pollsters Ipsos Mori which questioned 8,500 people dubbed the “knowledge panel”.

Details of this extensive survey, published by the Financial Times yesterday, showed some astonishing findings. Not least of these was that almost two out of three people in Northern Ireland favour another Scottish independence vote – a figure higher than the majority in Scotland favouring such a plebiscite.

Another extraordinary finding was that only one in four UK citizens believed the union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will exist in its current form inside the next decade.

Questions about whether or not another Scottish independence vote should be held were based on an assumption that the Edinburgh assembly will have a pro-referendum majority after these elections.

The electoral system for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments is a hybrid mix of first-past-the-post and PR. In Scotland’s case, 73 members are chosen by a straight vote in each of the constituencies.

A further 56 members of the Scottish parliament are then elected from eight regional party lists, based on the overall strength of their party vote. An earlier Ipsos Mori poll conducted in late March and early April suggested that Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party (SNP) could take 70 of the 129 seats.

A question mark still hangs over this in the shape of former SNP leader Alex Salmond’s breakaway Alba party, formed in the wake of a very bitter row following his acquittal on sexual assault charges. Salmond is targeting those national seats and pundits are unsure what his party’s impact may be.

Some observers suggest Alba may deprive the SNP of seats despite having little success themselves. Others point to the pro-independence Scottish Green Party which is expected to make gains and could make up any SNP shortfall in getting a new referendum.

But overall, any doubts about a pro-referendum majority after May 6 appear vastly diminished. Expect another Scottish referendum late next year or early in 2023.

The latest Ipsos Mori poll found that 51pc of people across the UK felt Scotland should get a second independence referendum. But 40pc of those surveyed felt London should continue to block such a vote.

Brexit has changed everything since the 2014 independence referendum. A huge last-minute push by the main parties back then – with the slogan “Better Together” – overturned opinion poll suggestions of a narrow win for independence.

But a big part of the unionists’ campaign laid stress on Scotland, along with other UK regions, being part of the European Union. Signals from Brussels were very negative about Scotland managing to hold on to EU membership, though this was and is highly debatable.

But Brexit changed all that. Scotland notably voted a 62pc majority for ‘Remain’ in the subsequent Brexit referendum in June 2016. Resentment at being “dragged out of the EU” and a deep-seated and widespread dislike of Boris Johnson are now very potent political factors. 

Reservations by the Spanish government, under pressure from Catalonia and to a lesser extent the Basques, appear to have melted away. An independent Scotland could now expect a good reception in Brussels.

By contrast, six out of 10 people UK-wide felt the United Kingdom would be weakened by Scotland’s departure.

A total of 53pc of people felt the UK will not continue as it is but change inside a decade, while 23pc did not know one way or another. Just four out of 10 UK citizens said Scotland’s departure would make them “mostly sad”.

Scotland’s personal and emotional links to Northern Ireland are strong. A move on Scottish independence would have a big impact.

It is also noticeable that Dublin has wisely, if belatedly, sought to improve relations with Edinburgh and Cardiff. A serious move on Welsh independence was once as likely as a united Ireland. But now as many as four out of 10 Welsh people say they are open to the idea, though the English-Welsh relationship is the most complex of all.

Suddenly, after decades of smug indifference to our fellow Celts’ aspirations, Ireland has woken up to reality. It is also notable and praiseworthy that Scotland’s quest for independence has not caused any loss of life, nor even injury.