Alliance Party the big winners as Sinn Féin election success may have been overstated

In most jurisdictions, the least likely outcome of an election is another election soon after as politicians make deals based on the results thrown up.

It says everything about the continuing topsy-turvy state of Northern Ireland politics that there is already a deal of talk about another election within six months.

The first utterances from the two big parties – Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – were dreary messages to their respective hard-core support bases. Neither party appeared interested in facing a new political dispensation in the North of Ireland, as many of us believed has been thrown up in this election.

Sinn Féin talked up a border poll sooner rather than later – something they should take more care about because it’s odds-on they would lose any such vote. On the other side, the DUP went into “No” mode, refusing to rejoin power-sharing until the EU’s post-Brexit special trade status for the North is given the kibosh.

No change in usual political service there then.

It is true that Sinn Féin coming out the largest party in the Stormont Assembly represents big change. The party’s principals, Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle O’Neill, had a right to sound jubilant.

It is a first for any nationalist party to have the right to nominate the First Minister for Northern Ireland – even though this post and that of deputy are entirely co-equal and interdependent, with one unable to function without the other.

That part of the outcome also has big implications for the southern jurisdiction. There is no doubt that Sinn Féin have a cracking chance of heading the next government in Dublin as opinion polls for quite some time tell us that one in three voters is prepared to vote for them.

But in some ways, that increases the challenge for Sinn Féin. Just as they are on an all-time high, they should beware that voters south of the border will watch how they manage things in the North.

Let’s put that another way: what is Sinn Féin going to do now to help Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP get out of that stupid corner into which they have painted themselves, regarding the Northern Protocol?

But in acknowledging Sinn Féin’s achievement in this election, let’s also inject a note of realism.

The party’s success had more to do with the disarray and division within the larger unionist camp. The Sinn Féin vote only increased by 1pc and they return with the same number of MLAs – 27 – as they had going into this campaign.

The more important point here is that by far the bigger change to come in this election was the pronounced swing to the Alliance Party, courageously led by Naomi Long.

They picked up nine extra seats to become the third force at Stormont. Furthermore, they copper-fastened that role yesterday with a courageous broadside to Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP, telling them to promptly address re-establishing power-sharing and getting on with the day job.

But Jeffrey Donaldson is the focus of much of the speculation around the possibility of another election sooner rather than later. The theory is that he feels it could benefit his party in the medium term and he could wrest back votes from the True Unionist Voice and Jim Allister.

Meanwhile, Mr Donaldson – who managed through a difficult election reasonably well – has a personal choice to make between keeping his seat in Westminster or taking a seat and less likely a government post in Belfast. It is a tricky one and it compounds his demands regarding the protocol.

All eyes today will be on Westminster as the queen’s speech – a device which sets out the plan of new laws – will be delivered. Will the list contain a well-flagged move to unilaterally discard chunks of the North’s protocol?

The answer at the time of writing is it depends who you talk to. But we do know that whatever action is taken by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be about trying to restore Conservative Party fortunes after their local election drubbing in English, Welsh and Scottish local elections.

BBC weekend projections suggested a repeat of the local performance in the next general election would cost the Tories 100 MPs.

Addressing that warning will motivate Mr Johnson – not the demands of Jeffrey Donaldson and the DUP. And Jeffrey Donaldson is painfully aware of this political reality.

Meanwhile, we can expect more noise, and a lot more statis in the North’s politics in the coming weeks.