Tuesday 16 January 2018

Adrian Kavanagh: Labour is facing a 'perfect storm' at coming election

Joan Burton
Joan Burton

Adrian Kavanagh

Although there has been an improvement in its figures recently, the Labour Party has tended to fall below the 10pc level in most opinion polls.

Labour's seat level estimates in most of the poll analyses I have carried out in the past few years have been quite stark, highlighting the fact that our PR-STV electoral system is proportional, but only to a limited extent.

The further Labour's support nationally falls below 10pc, the more problems it will face in terms of winning seats as this would leave it facing a 'perfect storm' from the combined effects of boundary changes, electoral geography and changing political competition patterns.

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