Wednesday 21 February 2018

A little 2020 vision will keep us out of recession

Marc Coleman on what needs to happen to ensure that we enter a phase of steady recovery that lasts the pace

Marc Coleman

Marc Coleman

For the next few months economists will sniff over statistics like last Thursday's growth figures. And like wine buffs at a tasting they'll regale us with fancy terminology that we don't understand. "Good underlying momentum, blah blah blah." "Confidence gathering pace, blah blah blah." And so on. What really counts is not the next few months, or even next year. A stop-start process, the recovery has gone from an initial rebound in 2010 to sliding back towards (but not into) recession a year afterwards, then a brief recovery before, oops, falling back into recession (for real this time) late last year. The signs of recovery are once again emerging.

But what we all want to know is: when will this uncertainty end? Between 2014 and 2020 – and hopefully as early as possible – we should enter a steady state of recovery that lasts the pace. And hopefully by 2020 the transition to recovery should be over.

What can be done to ensure that outcome? Right now the Department of Finance is trying to answer that by putting together a Medium Term Economic Strategy.

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