Monday 20 November 2017

Lucky-bag politics and sloganeering moulding us into a banana republic

Ivan Yates

Ivan Yates

It was jarring to hear the boss of one polling firm claiming pundits and bookies were blindsided by the demolition of Fine Gael as the campaign closed.

I would argue such a view is just self-serving nonsense. A full week before polling day, Paddy Power's seat index for Fine Gael was 50.5 (bet above or below). My own prediction gave it 51 seats.

In fact, the destiny of most of the 158 seats could be gauged from the local election results in May 2014. The outcomes were pretty much a mirror image of the pattern from the city/county councils.

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