Wednesday 22 November 2017

Don't predict recession - just be prepared for one

Brendan Keenan

Brendan Keenan

THERE was a bit of fuss the other day over claims that the IMF (International Monetary Fund) failed to predict a single one of the recessions around the world since 1999. But actually, it doesn't say on the tin that it will.

That is kind of convenient, since the Fund's member governments would not care to be told that their economy was due to start contracting in, say, 18 months' time. Not unless it was a certainty. Which of course it isn't.

A better reason for this lack of dire predictions is that recessions cannot be forecast. Nor indeed can recoveries.

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