Thursday 23 November 2017

Brendan Keenan: In a cliff-hanger ending, will America or Europe jump first?

Despite the election result, markets remain nervous about the US

Brendan Keenan

Brendan Keenan

LET'S hope Obama can find a way over the fiscal cliff. Last week's economic forecast from the EU Commission made grim reading, and something good needs to happen somewhere.

There is also Ireland's friend, Mr Xi. The change of guard in China has clearly been difficult but there are reasons to hope that reformers have the upper hand. However, reform may mean slowing the enormous investment programmes which have been so much benefit, to Germany in particular.

The weaker German economy -- which accounts for a third of eurozone output -- is a prime cause of what is another eurozone recession. Forget all that stuff about two consecutive quarters of contraction. The commission forecast of falling output this year, and virtually no increase next year, represents pretty severe recessionary conditions.

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