Opinion Brendan Keenan

Irish

Uneasy perch for Varadkar among the Baltic hawks 

Brendan KeenanVACANCY. Due to the imminent retirement of the present incumbent, applications are invited for the position of leader of the Awkward Squad in the European Union Project.

Warnings not enough: firms must fight for customs union 

Brendan Keenan THOSE 2014 commemorations for the centenary of the start of the Great War threw up a surprising analysis. As those around the Kaiser argued for peace or war, there was no clear answer to what...

Volatile currency swings and huge debt could yet derail us 

Brendan Keenan DESPITE all the algorithms, alphas, betas and the rest, by which financial markets make their impenetrable way, currency movements remain a mystery.

Border focus is a distraction from EU special status risks 

Brendan Keenan IT is reported that Sean MacBride, as Foreign Affairs Minister, was reluctant to accept US dollars under the post-war Marshall plan unless the USA made explicit its opposition to the partition of...

It's too soon to ring out the bells and mark end of lost decade for Ireland 

Brendan Keenan MAYBE they should have rung the church bells. Just about now, the economy will regain the peaks reached in 2007. But then again, maybe they shouldn't.

Feathers will fly and capital flight likely if Government tries to pluck golden goose 

Brendan Keenan THE Italian politician Cavour is credited with the observation that the art of taxation is to pluck the maximum amount of feathers with the minimum amount of hissing.

No such thing as free lunch, but who will tell the voters? 

Brendan Keenan COMING up to Budget time, my father, like many publicans, would buy in as much extra stock as the Revenue would allow, in the sure and certain knowledge that the inevitable rise in taxes would...

Right and Left must respond to the surge of discontent 

Brendan Keenan BREXIT, Trump and now Macron. Throw in Jeremy Corbyn as well, if you like. But of all the popular uprisings, the French one is surely the most astonishing.

The Government must be wary of the lure of borrowing 

Brendan Keenan FOOL'S gold, they used to call it. Many an old Western ended with the guy in the black hat discovering that the stolen poke contained, not the precious metal but the worthless lookalike (some kind of...

Foreign help and native skill all part of the recovery story 

Brendan Keenan GOOD luck or good judgment? Or did we get by with a little help from our friends? As the Irish economy continues to amaze, the question of how and why it recovered seems as elusive as ever.

Our pay comparison policy is out of date and dangerous 

Brendan Keenan ANY faint hopes that the new Pay Commission might find new ways of setting public sector pay were pretty firmly dashed with its report. To be fair, changing the methodology was not really in...

Only thing we can be certain of is we haven't seen anything yet 

Brendan Keenan A theme in many of the myriad books written about the Great Recession and the political upheavals which have followed, is that there was some kind of fundamental break in the global economy...

Ireland is already united - by threat of a Brexit nightmare 

Brendan Keenan EVERYONE else is daydreaming, so why shouldn't I? Just what would the world have to look like for a majority in Northern Ireland to vote to leave the UK and join the Irish Republic and,...

Brendan Keenan: Left and Right in new accord as neo-liberalism under fire 

Brendan Keenan THERE can be no doubt that something is going on, as the candidates of the great parties of France are eliminated in the presidential election and enthusiastic young crowds turn out for...

Elastic income tax a threat as new economic woes loom 

Brendan Keenan THE gist of 'The Undoing Project', the latest book from Michael Lewis ('Liar's Poker', 'The Big Short') is that people don't think the way they think they think.

Brendan Keenan: Few votes in averting crisis as growth is built on construction 

Brendan Keenan READING the latest quarterly report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the words of veteran US Congressman Barney Frank came to mind.

Brexit costs will damage, not boost case for united Ireland 

Brendan Keenan THE Irish Question is very difficult, the spoof history of Britain, '1066 And All That', opined. Every time the English find the answer, the Irish change the question.

German pensions crisis is warning to rest of the world 

Brendan Keenan A glimpse of something which would otherwise be very difficult to capture arrived courtesy of the German business group Ifo. It shows what happens when the retirement age is cut - in this case to 63...

Misery index fails to convey dangerous public cynicism 

Brendan Keenan WHATEVER happened to the misery index? Once upon a time a combination of inflation, unemployment and growth seemed to provide a reliable indicator of a government's popularity.

The City has history on its side as we try to solve Brexit paradox 

Brendan Keenan Occasionally, when I want to refresh my memory as to how English can be written - and on financial matters too - I dip into Walter Bagehot's 'Lombard Street'.

No fairytale ending as two little 'Pigs' rebuild house 

Brendan Keenan Ever since we were in the sty together, I have had an interest in that other little Pig, Portugal. Not that Portugal is all that small (10.5 million people) but we shared a common fate.

Numbers don't add up when tackling health system's ills 

Brendan Keenan WE have been warned. At a conference last year, experts from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said international health statistics must be interpreted with care. It was dangerous...

Brendan Keenan: Ireland must get in step with the global economic dance 

Brendan Keenan The Irish economy, like some plodders I'd rather not mention, just wouldn't make it on "Strictly." It always seems to be out of step.

Brendan Keenan: No quick fixes in complex world of globalised trade 

Brendan Keenan IT is almost 30 years since French company Pernod Ricard bought whiskey-maker Irish Distillers and sales of Jameson are booming. Another overnight success.

Brendan Keenan: Why we fear for future as Brits shrug off Brexit gloom 

Brendan Keenan AS well as pure folly, the most popular explanation for the insanity of the Great Credit Bubble is greed. There is a great deal of truth in that but there is another emotion which I thought at the time...

May hints at mutually assured destruction to win concessions 

Brendan Keenan There was some cheer for Irish business after British prime minister Theresa May's speech, as sterling rocketed to its biggest daily gain since at least 1998 to the benefit of Irish exporters and those...

Lords a strange ally in fight to mitigate Brexit fallout 

Brendan Keenan THE thought occurs: would there have been a different reaction to that recent report on the implications of Brexit for Ireland, had it come from a UK Senate rather than the House of Lords?

Whitaker's economic ideas transformed Ireland - and resounded around the world 

Brendan Keenan Even the longest of lives must come to an end, but the business of government goes on forever. The three great issues to which TK Whitaker devoted his life remain with us. We can only wonder...

Brendan Keenan: Sense of foreboding hangs over 2017 - but grounds for hope too 

Brendan Keenan NEW Year, they tell us, is a time of hope - but there is a strange feeling in the air. For 2017, the dominant feeling is not hope, but foreboding - a good old Saxon word for fear of what the future...

Brendan Keenan: New economy model stuck in past when forecasting future 

Brendan Keenan WHAT'S in a name? Quite a lot, it would seem, if the names in question are 'Cosmo' and 'Hermes' - the acronyms for the new and old models of the economy used by the Economic and Social Research...

Brendan Keenan: Truth is income equality has not worsened in last 30 years 

Brendan Keenan IT is difficult to find a direct connection between rising inequality in Britain and the anger which produced the Brexit vote, a learned professor said last week. Perhaps it is, but my goodness, it is...

Brendan Keenan: Public sector anger has led to Trump-like rejection of elite 

Brendan Keenan COULD it happen here? That was the question after the Brexit vote and, especially, the Trump victory. To which the answer might be: it already has. Like Tolstoy on marriages, every country shows...

Brendan Keenan: Time to stop blaming Foster and boost Brexit co-operation 

Brendan Keenan JUST now, I feel a bit like the guinea-pig I recently wrote about in that experiment, faced with 19 people denying the blindingly obvious and wondering if he can possibly be right. I am talking,...

Brendan Keenan: Government finances at their limit as storm clouds gather 

Brendan Keenan HAS it come to this already? The latest Exchequer returns on the public finances drew warnings from analysts that the borrowing targets this year might not be achieved.

We should know herd behaviour will lead to us choosing the wrong answers again 

Brendan Keenan To paraphrase golfer Ben Hogan, if it seems obvious, you're probably wrong. That could be the mantra of the fashionable subject of behavioural economics - to an extent that is beginning to dismay...

€100bn in bank - but we are most at risk from new crisis 

Brendan Keenan A figure which always surprises is the one which says Irish households have €100bn (that's not a misprint) on deposit in the banks. Aren't we all supposed to be bust?

De Valera's old hat no good for new north-south divide 

Brendan Keenan ONE of life's little pleasures is watching for glimpses of my younger self in episodes of RTE's 'Reeling in the Years'. In a recent one covering 1974, I knew I would not see myself, but I knew...

Zero interest rates may not be a good bargain in the end 

Brendan Keenan ON account of misreading the timetable, I spent part of my holiday sitting in a small Italian station waiting for a train that was not running.

This national nonsense of tax cuts for all needs to end 

Brendan Keenan NOW class, let's get back to the basics. First, the annual Budget cannot be an annual exercise in tax cutting. Not unless you believe in a smaller state and, as we know, absolutely nobody believes...

Known unknowns in great job creation success story 

Brendan Keenan AMID the encircling gloom, the employment figures continue to shine. So much statistical fog has descended on GDP, wealth, and even government finances, that it is worth remembering that the...

Even a generous Budget may not be enough for this Dáil 

Brendan Keenan THIS will be a Budget like no other - irrespective of who gets it through, or when exactly. Not even 1981-82, when there were three Budgets, from different governments, will quite compare.

Brendan Keenan: Once again, Ireland finds itself a mere pawn in a much bigger game 

Brendan Keenan William or James; Wellington or Napoleon; King or Kaiser? The story of Ireland often seems to be that of a long-suffering pawn caught in the struggles of great powers. It feels a bit like that again.

EU needs better politics and less law if it is to prosper 

Brendan Keenan AS they themselves would say, the Americans have skin in this game. Tens of billions of dollars worth of skin. But there may also be genuine puzzlement on the other side of the Atlantic about the...

Don't go down the statistics glen, for fear of little men 

Brendan Keenan WELL, that didn't take long. Just the other week, the Central Bank published data showing that private sector debt as a percentage of GDP had fallen by almost a quarter. Leprechaun alert!

Nothing funny about those joke figures for Irish GDP 

Brendan Keenan A funny thing happened on the way to the merger of carmakers Daimler-Benz and Chrysler in 1998. When the highly profitable German company re-filed its accounts in line with the rules of...

The Border issue involves principles that matter to the UK and EU states 

Brendan Keenan I moved from Belfast to Bray in 1976 and remember following the furniture van containing all my worldly goods, ready to present a list of them to Irish Customs.

Take the Churchillian view on Brexit - and do nothing 

Brendan Keenan 'I have not become the King's First Minister in order to preside over the liquidation of the British Empire," Winston Churchill told the US Congress in a famous speech. How much more important, then,...

Brendan Keenan on Project Fear: They were right to be afraid, and so should we be 

Brendan Kennan Project Fear - the Brexiteers' description of the Remain side's campaign - was perhaps their most successful line in the bitter UK referendum debate.

Europe must learn to do less and do it more in the open 

Brendan Keenan SOMETHING else was happening in Europe last week as well as the UK referendum to decide the future of Britain in the EU, Ireland in the EU, and perhaps of the EU itself.

Brendan Keenan: We must convince investors we won't be forced out of EU in wake of Brexit 

Brendan Keenan The Irish government's task is just about the only thing which is clear after the map of Europe was dramatically redrawn,

Income before investment may not be the best choice 

Brendan Keenan RARELY has the case been put so bluntly. The Association of Garda Sergeants and Inspectors has made it plain that they will not co-operate with the upgrading of the force's equipment unless their...