This time around it’s very different for Donald Trump presidential campaign

Jonathan Bernstein

Foreign Dispatch

Former US president Donald Trump at a campaign rally in South Carolina. Photo: Reuters/Shannon Stapleton

Former US president Donald Trump at a campaign rally in South Carolina. Photo: Reuters/Shannon Stapleton

Jonathan Bernstein

jonathan bernstein

Former US president Donald Trump at a campaign rally in South Carolina. Photo: Reuters/Shannon Stapleton

February 03 2023 02:30 AM

At first glance, the Republican presidential campaign is shaping up to be bizarrely normal. In a deeper sense, however, it is profoundly bizarre. Of course, the reason is former US president Donald Trump.

Start with how normal it is. There’s the front-runner who has already declared, and held his first public events of the year last weekend. Then there are several unofficial candidates. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has the most traction in the polls so far and support in Republican-aligned media, is gearing up. So are former governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson and former US vice-president Mike Pence.

Several others, including senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Tim Scott of South Carolina, and governor of Georgia Brian Kemp and governor of New Hampshire Chris Sununu have been visited by the Great Mentioner.

In the 2016 campaign, Cruz announced on March 23, 2015, followed in April by two more of the eventual 17 candidates. Democrats were a bit quicker in 2020 – former secretary of housing Julian Castro, then senator Kamala Harris of California and three minor candidates had officially announced by February 2019 – but most of the 29 candidates waited until later.

In terms of both the number of possible candidates and the timing of their announcements, it all seems unnervingly normal. Don’t be fooled. There’s a lot about this campaign that’s extremely unusual – on its own and compared with 2016.

For starters, there’s a former president running for the first time in more than 100 years. And it’s not just that – he’s a twice-impeached former president, one whom seven members of his own party voted to convict.

But that’s not all. He’s also facing serious legal troubles in New York and Georgia and is being investigated by a special counsel appointed by the Justice Department. While there’s plenty of Republican grumbling about Trump, including blaming him for the party’s poorer-than-expected 2022 election results, there has been hardly a peep from Republicans about the fact their front-runner could be indicted – multiple times – even before the Iowa caucuses.

Then there’s Trump’s image. Eight years ago, he had no governing experience at all. Now he’s a former president.

Back then, he was popularly known as a business-savvy billionaire from reality television. Now only his supporters view him that way; many, if not most, Americans see him as a liar about the election and a fomenter of the attack on the Capitol.

Back then, many voters saw him as more blunt and more moderate than typical Republicans. Now? It’s hard even to understand half of what he says, unless you spend a lot of time immersed in the world of the Republican-aligned media.

His circumstances within the party have also changed. In 2016, almost every party actor opposed him until he started winning primaries, and even then he had relatively few endorsements until wrapping up the nomination. In 2020, he had the full backing of the party, but for the exception of a small group of Never Trumpers, many of whom were no longer even Republicans.

This time, he’s more like Mitt Romney in 2012, or John McCain or Hillary Clinton in 2008 – which is to say, more endorsements and other party support than any other candidate, but not enough to necessarily guarantee the nomination. At least so far.

There were also fluky circumstances that helped Trump win in 2016. Whether it was Marco Rubio collapsing (twice) in crucial debates just as he had picked up support, or Jeb Bush and others refusing to drop out when they no longer had a reasonable chance, or the irrational campaign of John Kasich, Trump benefited from a series of events and decisions that is unlikely to be repeated.

Nothing is impossible. Trump or someone else could win in Iowa and New Hampshire with only a small plurality. But to get the nomination, whoever wins will probably need majority support in most states – as Joe Biden had among Democrats in 2020. There’s too much speculation that Trump will benefit from a crowded field, as he did in 2016.

The 2024 campaign is already very different from 2016, and it’s likely to become even more so. It’s not that it’s too early to say Trump will win the nomination – it’s that there has never been a presidential campaign like this one.