Nicholas Leonard: Cameron caught between principle and profit

Nicholas Leonard

February 21 2011 04:43 AM

'Dreadful and horrifying' was how British foreign secretary William Hague yesterday described the Libyan response to the latest pro-democracy demonstrations in the Arab world.

Given the vicious scale of the military action against the protesters, Hague had little option but to denounce them. But only a few months ago, the Foreign Office was granting export licences for the sale of ammunition and tear gas to Libya, and at the massive international defence exhibition in Abu Dhabi this week, almost 100 of the 1,060 exhibitors taking part are British. They are being backed up by a delegation of 15 civil servants from Whitehall.

A mere 10 days ago, Hague himself was in Bahrain, where, according to a local news report, he gave an enthusiastic comment on its "tremendous democratic achievements" and "hailed the kingdom's successful reforms".

Happily for Hague, his confidence in the integrity of the regime in Bahrain seems, at least for the moment, to have been supported by events, but the licences for British arms makers to sell military equipment to that country and to Libya have been hastily revoked.

David Cameron's coalition government is now confronted by a classic conflict between principle and profit. In the past nine months, it pragmatically endorsed an expansion of military export licences but the 'Arab spring' has stopped it in its tracks.

While arms sales are important, oil is even more crucial. It was BP that aggressively lobbied for the release of the convicted Libyan bomber, al-Megrahi, from prison in Scotland in order to underpin its role in a country that is now the ninth-largest oil exporter in the world.

Historians point to intriguing parallels between the remarkable developments in the Arab world and the similar surge in revolutionary activity which swept across much of continental Europe back in 1848. On that occasion, the initial move toward democracy was swiftly replaced by the autocratic power of ruthless leaders like Bismarck.

While protesters in the Arab world seek democracy, politicians at Westminster are engaged in an intense debate about how democracy should work.

For the first time in history, there is now a real prospect that the traditional first-past-the-post arrangement for selecting MPs may be dropped and replaced by an alternative vote (AV) system which would be a small but significant step toward full Irish-style proportional representation.

Colin Firth, the actor who is hot favourite to win an Oscar for 'The King's Speech', is among the celebrities urging voters to say yes to AV in the referendum on May 5.

The issue has split the coalition, with Cameron and the Conservatives backing the status quo, while the Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, campaigns for a 'yes'.

Clegg said last year that AV would be a "miserable little compromise", but he now sees it is as a foot in the door for transforming the Lib Dems into a party which, he hopes, could almost permanently hold the balance of power in future general elections.

The referendum is being held on the same day as the parliamentary and assembly elections in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. There will also be some local council elections that day, so in parts of the UK the turnout will be much higher than others.

THIS should help the 'yes' campaign because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are likely to back it in order to show their hostility toward the Conservatives. Ironically, Clegg himself has been told by his spindoctors to keep a low profile because he is so unpopular.

Cameron, meanwhile, is toying with another major change in the way the UK functions. He is keen to move the clocks forward one hour to have longer evenings and align the timezone with central Europe.

Controlling the nation's clocks is certainly easier for him than getting the economy straight. The upheavals in the Arab world and the series of extreme weather events around the globe have added to worries about inflation.

The latest official figures show that prices are up 4pc on a year ago and the Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, is under pressure from some analysts to push up interest rates to try to halt inflation.

For a few hours last week, it looked as though King was heading in that direction before he abruptly changed course and decided that higher rates would simply stop the economic recovery in its tracks and do nothing to make oil or food imports cheaper. Cynics are now calling him 'Merv the Swerve'.

Gordon Brown's wife, Sarah, tried to do her bit to keep the family food bills down when he was prime minister. She reveals in her memoirs that she ordered groceries online over the internet. Unfortunately, they never got delivered because the company assumed that the address she gave at Number Ten Downing Street was a hoax.

Nicholas Leonard: Cameron caught between principle and profit

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