MetroLink ‘megaproject’ is on track, ministers say – but caution is name of the game

Caroline O'Doherty

An artist's impression of how an entrance to the MetroLink might look on O'Connell Street, Dublin

Tara Street Station Looking north from Townsend Street, Tara Street will have two entrances, one north and south of the station and will provided easy interconnection with Tara Street Irish Rail Station utilising the ramparts..

An artist's impression of how an entrance to the MetroLink might look on O'Connell Street, Dublin

Tara Street Station Looking north from Townsend Street, Tara Street will have two entrances, one north and south of the station and will provided easy interconnection with Tara Street Irish Rail Station utilising the ramparts..

An artist's impression of how an entrance to the MetroLink might look on O'Connell Street, Dublin

July 06 2022 02:30 AM

Caution is a funny thing. It can reassure or terrify, depending on whether it reinforces the safety of the approach to an activity or the high level of risk inherent in that activity.

How then to read the Government’s (latest) announcement on the MetroLink plan?

Yesterday’s press briefing on the biggest capital project ever contemplated in the State lacked the pomp normally associated with such occasions.

“Caution”, “conservatism” and “contingency” were the buzz-less buzzwords used repeatedly.

“There is no longer this big-bang approach,” said Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath.

“There are decision gates for pause and reassessment.”

It seemed the tone was agreed in advance in anticipation of the obvious question that has plagued many of the country’s major infrastructure developments – what will it cost?

MetroLink could cost €7.16bn, €9.5bn or €12.25bn, the business case agreed by Cabinet on Monday stated.

Or, according to Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, who brought the first tool to the works – namely, a spanner – it could cost €23bn.

That’s a threefold difference between the lowest and highest foreseeable figures.

The highest could not absolutely be discounted but it was a “mad” figure, said Transport Minister Eamon Ryan, who stressed the best estimate was the mid-point in the business case, or €9.5bn.

It would still make sense at the €12.25bn figure, he added hurriedly. But that’s before any of the project is put out to tender – which, Mr McGrath said, would be the real test of the numbers.

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe emphasised the point. “There are some extreme risks that could drive the cost up further,” he said.

“We need to be aware of inflation, changes in the economic environment and changes in planning permission and tendering.”

Not to mention the underground unknowns that tunnelling may discover, the likelihood of planning objections, and the possibility of judicial review.

The ministers were also aware of being, in their own words, “caught out”.

The National Children’s Hospital, the most notable overdue, over-budget, under-controlled monument to runaway cost escalation was repeatedly referenced.

“Caught out” can mean two things in government – being unprepared in a practical sense, or being savaged in a political sense. The former ends up costing the citizen and taxpayer, while the latter inflicts damage on Dáil seats. Which is providing greater motivation in the Coalition’s wary approach to MetroLink is not entirely clear.

If given the benefit of the doubt, the statements made by the ministers yesterday amount to a strong statement of commitment to the project.

And for everyone who will benefit from its 19.4km of track; its 15 stations (plus a 16th to follow down the line); and its high-capacity, (relatively) high-speed, high-frequency service, that has to be welcomed.

While much of the fuss over the chosen route and construction disruption has centred on the south side of the city, the project has the potential to transform the north side – which has been starved of public transport infrastructure.

It will provide easier access to Dublin Airport, will reduce millions of car journeys and, by linking up with the Dart, Luas and Dublin Bus services at strategic locations, give greater transport options to hospitals, universities
and employment hubs.

“It’s a megaproject,” said Mr Donohoe, allowing one excitable description to escape him before quickly resuming solemnity and acknowledging “it has had other launches and moments of development”.

Indeed it has – and other commitments. Twenty years ago, then transport minister Séamus Brennan declared it “public transport priority number one”.

Regardless of the competing demands on the Exchequer, it would be ploughing ahead, he declared. Two years later, then TD Eamon Ryan was quizzing him in the Dáil about it. “The government said the metro would be up and running in 2007,” he reminded Brennan.

“Can the minister predict in what year the metro will run?”

The answer to that question was vague – or, as the ministers might say, cautious.

A planning application – or railway order, as it is called in such a case – should be lodged with An Bord Pleanála in September, and construction could begin in 2025.

It will then take seven to nine years to build, so the “bestimate” of MetroLink’s opening is somewhere in the early to mid-2030s.

“We have been excessively conservative and cautious,” Mr Ryan said of the timelines, his comments generating reassurance and nervousness in equal measure. “We have counted in every contingency.” He added with a flourish: “That first sod will be turned. Dublin will have a metro.”

For a moment, confidence took over from caution.

The next two, 12 or 20 years will tell whether that was wise.