Friday 24 November 2017

Mayo

Michelle Mulherin
Michelle Mulherin

Mayo with four out of five FG seats may have been a coronation for Enda Kenny in 2011.

But, after its reduction from a five to a four seat constituency, could it evolve into a defenestration in 2016?

One thing we can be sure about is that four Fine Gael seats into four Mayo seats will not go.

The stark question Fine Gael face is whether they will even win two of the four seats.

Locals who are growling over how Enda has abandoned Mayo for the bright lights and pining over the good old days of Pee Flynn are certainly not of a mood to allow Enda a victorious procession.

When it comes to the complex runes of Mayo, Fianna Fail's next leader Dara Calleary (not of course that Dara wants the job) is sure of one seat whilst Fine Gael's Michael Ring is also expected to win one seat.

Sadly when it comes to Dear Leader Enda he is facing a twin-track challenge from Sinn Fein and Michael Fitzmaurice's still nascent Country and Western Party.

For now Kenny's main concern is that he might suffer the social embarrassment of being elected on Michael Ring's transfers.

The even more appalling vista is that should Fine Gael suffer another variant of 2014 and the rise of the Independents and SF is not curbed, he could end up fighting it out with Ring, Sinn Fein and some turf-cutter for the last seat.

How Mr Kenny fares in Mayo may well be the litmus test for how he and Fine Gael fare in the country.

In that regard it is time for a Taoiseach who, but for a handful of votes, would have lost his seat in 2002 to be careful, very careful.

John Drennan's Guide to Politics - Spring 2015

The next election will change your life. In a special supplement with the Sunday Independent, John Drennan presents his guide to Irish politics.

Sunday Independent

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