Mayo with four out of five FG seats may have been a coronation for Enda Kenny in 2011.
But, after its reduction from a five to a four seat constituency, could it evolve into a defenestration in 2016?
One thing we can be sure about is that four Fine Gael seats into four Mayo seats will not go.
The stark question Fine Gael face is whether they will even win two of the four seats.
Locals who are growling over how Enda has abandoned Mayo for the bright lights and pining over the good old days of Pee Flynn are certainly not of a mood to allow Enda a victorious procession.
When it comes to the complex runes of Mayo, Fianna Fail's next leader Dara Calleary (not of course that Dara wants the job) is sure of one seat whilst Fine Gael's Michael Ring is also expected to win one seat.
Sadly when it comes to Dear Leader Enda he is facing a twin-track challenge from Sinn Fein and Michael Fitzmaurice's still nascent Country and Western Party.
For now Kenny's main concern is that he might suffer the social embarrassment of being elected on Michael Ring's transfers.
The even more appalling vista is that should Fine Gael suffer another variant of 2014 and the rise of the Independents and SF is not curbed, he could end up fighting it out with Ring, Sinn Fein and some turf-cutter for the last seat.
How Mr Kenny fares in Mayo may well be the litmus test for how he and Fine Gael fare in the country.
In that regard it is time for a Taoiseach who, but for a handful of votes, would have lost his seat in 2002 to be careful, very careful.
John Drennan's Guide to Politics - Spring 2015
The next election will change your life. In a special supplement with the Sunday Independent, John Drennan presents his guide to Irish politics.
Guide To Politics
- And they're off: the great election race begins but, as to where it ends, sadly nobody knows
- The key issues - Remember tax reform is not illegal, Enda
- It's like a talent show - you have to make the audience want you
- Could our interrupted revolution lie in the humanising of our politicians?
- 'It's awful losing your seat, it's a very public humiliation...'
- Too early to rule out FG/SF Coalition
- Shadowy back room boys and girls with the ear of ministers
- Enda and Joan's shaky house of cabinet cards
- Despite Enda's stated preference Easter 2016 not yet definite
- As they hatch their plans, what might be the hopes and ambitions of our party schemers?
- Battle of the leaders to be key deciding factor in election race
- Spectral scenarios or sweet dreams
- When the fuss is over who will be the winner?
The Gender Gap
The Generation Game