Key constituency - Tipperary
Outside of that famous aficionado of 'lovely girls', Micheal Lowry, no-one is safe here.
The future for Labour hangs on Alan Kelly securing a seat in the teeth of an accelerating rural revolt.
Fianna Fail, if it has to have a future in the old stomping ground of the Smith and Davern dynasties, must win a seat here.
Astonishingly their chances are at best equivocal.
Then there is the battle of the Independent dynasties, for outside of 'Lowry' there is Mattie McGrath, that child from the world of The Irish RM, and Seamus Healy the last revolutionary socialist in Tipperary.
They are, to put it mildly, different creatures, but both will be major pebbles in the shoes of the established parties. Now, just to add to the mix, Sinn Fein is coming up on the rails.
Normally in the fertile farmland of the Golden Vale, Fine Gael would be sure of two big farmer seats.
When it comes to Tom Hayes and Noel Coonan neither is assured of a seat.
Their respective fates are only one of a number of questions which, when answered, tell us much about the national trend.
Outside of asking can the Fine Gael centre hold, Tipperary will tell us if Fianna Fail can regain a foothold as a serious national party rather than its current state as a sort of glee club for political nostalgics.
It will tell us the truth about Sinn Fein's own aims to become a national party and Labour's prayers to continue being one at the expense of another Independent's day.
When it comes to the status of Tipperary as a prologue to a far bigger national play we can only be sure of one thing.
There will be plenty of skelping in the fertile plains of the 'premier county' before the final score emerges.
John Drennan's Guide to Politics - Spring 2015
The next election will change your life. In a special supplement with the Sunday Independent, John Drennan presents his guide to Irish politics.
Guide To Politics
- And they're off: the great election race begins but, as to where it ends, sadly nobody knows
- The key issues - Remember tax reform is not illegal, Enda
- It's like a talent show - you have to make the audience want you
- Could our interrupted revolution lie in the humanising of our politicians?
- 'It's awful losing your seat, it's a very public humiliation...'
- Too early to rule out FG/SF Coalition
- Shadowy back room boys and girls with the ear of ministers
- Enda and Joan's shaky house of cabinet cards
- Despite Enda's stated preference Easter 2016 not yet definite
- As they hatch their plans, what might be the hopes and ambitions of our party schemers?
- Battle of the leaders to be key deciding factor in election race
- Spectral scenarios or sweet dreams
- When the fuss is over who will be the winner?
The Gender Gap
The Generation Game