Fine Gael faces tough battle to hold seat in by-election in party heartland

Fine Gael mobilised 120 people from 4am onwards to distribute 30,000 leaflets, in favour of their candidate, Cllr James Geoghegan, and their canvass continued right up to the close of voting at 10.30pm.

Labour mobilised a similar operation across the constituency in favour of its contender, Senator Ivana Bacik. Sinn Féin concentrated final efforts in more working class areas, and also mobilised an impressive effort to give transport to polling centres to would-be voters for its candidate, Senator Lynn Boylan.

These three are deemed to be the ones to watch. But transfers from Green Party candidate Cllr Claire Byrne, and Fianna Fáil’s Cllr Deirdre Conroy will also be carefully studied as they could determine the final outcome.

Party morale and pride are factors for all five key parties in this contest which is the country’s first vote of any kind since the general election on February 8, 2020, and the subsequent series of Covid-19 lockdowns which began in late March of that year. Various implications for all their parties and their leadership will be read into the outcome.

Fine Gael is in a real battle to hold the seat vacated by former Housing Minister Eoin Murphy and it will be recalled that up to the last election it had two of the four seats in this Dublin Bay South constituency.

Its candidate, Cllr James Geoghegan, had a slow start to his campaign but all the party’s prominent representatives have canvassed for him in recent days.

If Fine Gael loses out there will be criticism of party leader Leo Varadkar, and party headquarters for their failure to field former party TD Kate O’Connell. The real threat to Fine Gael is Labour’s Senator Bacik who is very well known in the area and her party hopes it can buck its national opinion poll showings to win.

Sinn Féin’s Senator Lynn Boylan has reportedly campaigned well with huge party support and ultimately, her transfers could decide things.

A strong showing for the party – even short of a win – would help the party show it can muster middle-class votes.

For the Green Party it is about making a strong showing in a constituency where it has had many past successes. Cllr Claire Byrne is well-known and transfer-friendly and the destination of her transfers is likely to be Labour’s Ivana Bacik.

Fine Gael will hope that at least some of transfers from Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre Conroy can make their way back to them. Expectations at Fianna Fáil headquarters are very modest and one source suggested they could live with something more than a 10pc share of the vote.

The impact of Covid restrictions at the RDS count centre in Dublin might delay the usual early overview emerging before lunchtime. Usual tallies, which track the final destination of transfers, may not function as smoothly as at previous elections.

But a good indication should be available by mid-afternoon.

In all 15 candidates stood in the by-election with 10 from various parties and five Independents. There were nine women and six men.

The party candidates are: Cllr Deirdre Conroy, Fianna Fáil; Cllr James Geoghegan, Fine Gael; Senator Ivana Bacik, Labour; Senator Lynn Boylan, Sinn Féin; Cllr Claire Byrne, Green Party; Sarah Durcan, Social Democrats; Brigid Purcell, People Before Profit; Mairéad Tóibín, Aontú; Justin Barrett, National Party; and Jacqui Gilbourne, Renua.

The Independent candidates are: Cllr Mannix Flynn, Dolores Cahill, Peter Dooley, Colm O’Keeffe and John Keigher.