Labour’s Ivana Bacik appears to have a good chance of emerging as the winner in the Dublin Bay South by-election with just 10 days left to polling.
A new survey for the Irish Times shows Fine Gael’s candidate, James Geoghegan, is leading the field with 27pc of the vote.
But Labour senator Ivana Bacik is in second place on 22pc with three women candidates some distance behind.
This suggests that a favourable transfer pattern could see the Labour contender home in the by-election due on Thursday week, July 8.
The Ipsos-MRBI survey puts Sinn Féin senator Lynn Boylan in third place on 13pc, followed by the Green Party’s Claire Byrne on 11pc and Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre Conroy on 10pc.
The survey interviews were carried last Thursday and Friday in the constituency with a sample of 500 people. The margin of error is put at plus or minus 4.4pc.
A total of 15 candidates are contesting the by-election, 10 people representing political parties and five Independents.
In all nine women and six men are standing suggesting that the transfers from voters choosing a women candidate may be significant.
After this by-election was called, following the resignation of former Fine Gael housing minister, Eoghan Murphy, it was seen as a contest between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.
This opinion poll suggests the battle is between Fine Gael and Labour.