Ireland and Europe at risk of new Covid surge as two new variants of concern declared

Ireland and the rest of Europe is at risk of a significant increase in Covid-19 in the coming weeks after new off-shoots of Omicron were declared variants of concern today.

The new variants of concern are BA.4 and BA.5, which were first detected in South Africa in January and February of this year. They have led to another surge in infection.

They have become the dominant variants there, the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) said.

BA.2 is still dominant in Ireland and cases are falling. Hospitals which faced major disruption for months are now trying to increase non-Covid care and tackle waiting lists.

However, the new variants are due to become dominant in Portugal, a popular holiday destination with people from Ireland, at the end of this month.

The watchdog said the presence of these variants could cause a significant overall increase in Covid-19 cases in the EU/EEA in the coming weeks.

Both BA.4 and BA.5 are more transmissible than BA.2 but not more severe, according to current evidence.

The ECDC said: "Additionally, there is an increasing trend in the variant proportions for BA.5 observed in Portugal in recent weeks, accompanied by an increase in Covid-19 case numbers and test positivity rate.”

The Portuguese National Institute of Health estimated BA.5 already accounted for 37pc of the positive cases as of May 8, 2022.

The estimated daily growth advantage for BA.5 over BA.2 is 13pc, which is similar to the 12pc daily growth advantage previously reported by South Africa.

Assuming such growth rate, BA.5 will become the dominant variant in Portugal by May 22.

The currently observed growth advantage for BA.4 and BA.5 is likely due to their ability to evade immune protection induced by prior infection and/or vaccination, particularly if this has waned over time.

Limited available data from in vitro studies evaluating sera from unvaccinated individuals, who have experienced a prior BA.1 infection, indicate that both BA.4 and BA.5 are capable of escaping immune protection induced by infection with BA.1.

People who are unvaccinated are unlikely to be protected against symptomatic infection with BA.4 or BA.5, the watchdog said.

Protection derived from currently available vaccines does wane over time against the Omicron variant.

There is currently no indication of any change in severity for BA.4 and BA.5 compared to previous Omicron lineages.

The ECDC added: “Taken together, this indicates that the presence of these variants could cause a significant overall increase in Covid-19 cases in the EU/EEA in the coming weeks and months.

“The overall proportion of BA.4 and BA.5 in the EU/EEA is currently low but the high growth advantages reported suggest that these variants will become dominant in the EU/EEA in the coming months.

“Based on the limited data currently available, no significant increase in infection severity compared to the circulating lineages BA.1 and BA.2 is expected.

“However, as in previous waves, if Covid-19 case numbers increase substantially, some level of increased hospital and ICU admissions is likely to follow.”

ECDC encouraged countries to remain vigilant for signals of BA.4 and BA.5 emergence. Early variant detection critically relies on sensitive and representative testing and genomic surveillance, with timely sequence reporting.

Representative testing policies are required to reliably estimate the contribution of these variants to ongoing viral circulation, as well as to accurately determine the extent these variants may contribute to any observed increases in severe outcomes in the population, such as increases in hospital or ICU admissions.

The public health benefit of administering a second Covid-19 booster dose was recently assessed by ECDC to be clearest in those aged 80 years and above. Immediate administration of a second booster dose in this population was found to be optimal in situations of continued high or increasing viral circulation.

Continued close epidemiological and vaccine effectiveness monitoring is essential in order to rapidly detect signals of increased SARS-CoV-2 circulation or risk of severe disease among vaccinated individuals.

“If such signals emerge, a second booster may be considered for some or all adults 60 years and older and for other vulnerable groups,” said the ECDC. “Countries should have plans in place for the rapid deployment of booster doses in these population groups.”

Currently in Ireland second boosters are offered to the over-65s and people aged 12 and over who are very immunocompromised

For all age groups, it remains a priority to improve Covid-19 vaccine uptake of the primary course and first booster dose in populations who have yet to receive them, it said.