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Fiscal treaty poll: Yes camp ahead, one in three undecided


Taoiseach Enda Kenny promoting the Yes campaign.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny promoting the Yes campaign.

Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald campaigning for a No vote

Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald campaigning for a No vote


THE Yes side has a commanding lead in the EU fiscal treaty referendum, but more than one in three voters are still undecided, according to an Irish Independent Millward Brown Lansdowne opinion poll.

The poll taken this week shows 37pc saying they will vote Yes, with 24pc in the No camp.

But 35pc of voters say they still don’t know how they will vote and four per cent say they won’t vote.

When the don’t knows are excluded, it’s 60pc Yes versus 40pc No.

With just two weeks until polling day, the referendum is there for the taking by the Yes side – unless there is a significant swing of undecided voters to the No camp.

The opinion poll was conducted among a sample of 1,016 adults interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 93 sampling points throughout all constituencies.

Interviewing on this poll was carried out on Monday, May 14th and Tuesday, May 15th 2012.

The Yes campaign is being promoted by the Government headed up by Taoiseach Enda Kenny. Sinn Fein and several independent TDs oppose the treaty.

Meanwhile in Greece it was announced today that a second election will take place on June 17 and Judge Panagiotis Pikrammenos will head the temporary caretaker government in the interim.

Bond yields surged in Italy and Spain and markets dropped, as a Greek exit from the eurozone looks increasingly likely, putting investors at risk of "killer losses" on the country's debt.

It has also been revelaed that Greeks are pulling their euros from the country's banks, afraid of their savings being rapidly devalued if the country does leave the single currency.

Central bank head George Provopoulos told President Karolos Papoulias that savers withdrew at least €700m on Monday.

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The International Monetary Fund said Europe’s leaders should prepare for the possibility of a Greek departure from the single currency.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, warned she was “technically prepared for anything” and said the utmost effort must be made to ensure any Greek exit was orderly. The effect was likely to be “quite messy” with risks to growth, trade and financial markets. “It is something that would be extremely expensive and would pose great risks but it is part of options that we must technically consider,” she said.

Raising tensions still further, Germany warned Greek voters that the wrong result in next month’s election will force their country out of the single currency.

In tomorrow’s Irish Independent, see the detail on the breakdown of party supporters in the referendum vote, how well informed voters are ahead of the May 31st vote, and attitudes to the euro.

Plus, the analysis of James Downey, UCC’s Dr Theresa Reidy and Millward Brown Lansdowne’s James McCarthy-Morrogh.

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