Friday 19 January 2018

Dramatic local election seat losses predicted for Labour and Fine Gael – expert

Fionnan Sheahan

Fionnan Sheahan

BASED on the results of the RTE exit poll, political geographer Adrian Kavanagh’s rough estimates of seat predictions shows dramatic losses for the Coalition of the Labour Party and Fine Gael.

Labour will drop below 50 council seats and Fine Gael will be down to about 250 seats.

Sinn Fein will more than double it’s number of council seats and Independents seat numbers will go up by more than 100. 

Fianna Fail’s seat numbers will increase due to the redraw of the local electoral areas and the losses for Fine Gael.

Depending upon transfer patterns, Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Independents will be vying to be the largest block.

- Labour Party – 40-50 seats – down about 80 from the 133 won in 2009;

- Fine Gael – 250-260 seats – down about 80 from the 340 won in 2009;

- Fianna Fail – 240-250 seats – up about 30 from the 220 won in 2009;

- Sinn Fein – 130 seats – up about 80 from the 54 won in 2009;

- Independents – 242 seats – up about 106 from the 136 won in 2009.

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