Record number of Leaving Cert pupils opting for higher paper

With more students aiming high, it will sharpen the competition in the CAO points race for higher education places.

Candidates have raised their sights in a year when honours papers are more accessible because of greater choice between and within questions, and fewer questions to answer.

Students have also been assured that results overall will be at least on a par with last year’s inflated grades.

Leaving Cert student numbers are up by more than 3pc this year, to 63,651, including 3,182 doing Leaving Cert Applied (LCA). That is in line with population trends and compares with 61,519 in 2021 and 59,656 in 2019.

Such an increase is automatically factored into the number of college places available but, on top of that, the share of candidates opting for higher level is also up.

The trend to higher level is most obvious in entries for higher maths, where a minimum 40pc mark comes with a bonus of 25 points.

Almost half – 44pc – of candidates currently plan to take the higher paper, up from last year’s record of 40pc, when pre-exam intentions were measured in May 2021.

It is well ahead of interest in higher-level maths in previous years. Uptake has been rising since the bonus was introduced, but, before the Covid-19 pandemic, interest at this stage of the year was at mid-30pc mark, falling somewhat on the day of the exam.

While the increase in student intentions to sit higher maths is particularly marked, the upward trend in candidate ambition is visible across virtually all subjects, according to figures supplied to the Irish Independent by the State Examinations Commission (SEC).

English has seen an uptick in candidates preparing for the honours paper (78pc – up from 75pc in 2021), as has

biology, 90pc (88pc in 2021); geography, 89pc (87pc); French, 78pc (75pc); business, 90pc (86pc); history, 83pc (80pc).

Students may change their mind about the level at which they take the paper, and an SEC spokesperson said that the data presented was provisional and subject to change.

“The final data for Leaving Certificate 2022 will not be known until after the examinations have been held,” the spokesperson said.

But any fall-off in the numbers doing higher papers on the day of the exam will be from an unprecedentedly high point and is likely to remain relatively high.

In 2019, across the same sample of popular subjects, uptake in higher level papers on the day was: maths, 33pc; English, 74pc; biology, 79pc; geography, 83pc; French, 67pc; business, 80pc; history, 75pc.

Figures over several years show a general swing towards higher level in many subjects, but the trend has accelerated in the Covid era, when traditional exam arrangements were abandoned.

The past two years saw the use of grades based on teachers’ estimates. Last year, students also had the option of taking exams, but with more choice and fewer questions to answer.

The changes led to considerable grade inflation. Last year, 1,342 candidates achieved the maximum 625 points, more than double the 2020 figure and a six-fold increase on 2019.

While 2022 is a return to exams only, candidates have been guaranteed that the results profile will be no lower than that of 2021.

As well as papers with fewer questions to answer in the standard time, candidates’ work will be marked in such a way that the outcomes will be at least the same as last year’s results.

Education Minister Norma Foley made the pledge due to concerns that 2022 CAO applicants would be at a disadvantage vis-a-vis applicants from the class of 2021, and 2020, if the profile of grades reverted to pre-Covid norms.

On average, individual results will be 60 CAO points higher in 2022 than they were in 2019, and, based on their intentions, students are clearly seeking to optimise their chances.

Meanwhile, Irish oral exams for about 500 students – due to take place over the weekend – were postponed until early May as examiners were unable to attend due to Covid-19.

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