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Tuesday 10 December 2019

DiCaprio set for Bafta and Oscar double, history suggests

Leonardo DiCaprio looks set to add an Oscar to his Bafta award
Leonardo DiCaprio looks set to add an Oscar to his Bafta award

Leonardo DiCaprio will pick up his first ever Academy Award on Sunday, if the Oscars continue their recent trend of mirroring the top winners at the Baftas.

A total of four of the previous five recipients of the Bafta for best actor - and eight of the last 11 - have gone on claim the same title at the Oscars.

The pattern is exactly the same for women, which could mean good news for this year's Bafta winner Brie Larson.

New analysis by the Press Association shows that the two academies are increasingly picking the same people to win the biggest film awards.

Between 1995 and 2004, Bafta correctly forecast the winners of the top four Oscars on just under a third of occasions (30%).

But between 2005 and 2014, this figure rose to 68%.

The British judges' choice for best film is also increasingly matching that of their American counterparts.

Since 2007, there has only been one instance when the same movie did not win the best film award at both the Baftas and the Oscars. That was last year, when Bafta picked Boyhood while the Oscar went to Birdman.

If both academies opt for the same choice this year, DiCaprio's film The Revenant will triumph on Sunday.

History is not on the side of the man who directed The Revenant, however.

Alejandro González Inarritu could miss out on an Oscar to go with his Bafta, as the winners of the award for best director have been less unanimous recently.

In only two of the last five years has the same person picked up both titles.

Inarritu won the Oscar for best director last year, and the Academy hasn't given this award to the same person two years in a row since 1950.

Eddie Redmayne, nominated best actor for his role in The Danish Girl, can take heart from the fact that UK-born males have thrived at the Baftas and Oscars in recent years.

Brits have won best actor at six of the last nine Baftas and three of the last five Oscars.

The story is not so impressive for females. No British stars have won the best actress award at either ceremony since 2009 - unless you count Julianne Moore, on account of her Scottish mother, who did the double in 2014.

PA Media

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