Aine O'Connor: Netflix is set to dominate Golden Globes and old Tinseltown superpowers are not happy
The gunas have had their final fittings and the Botox and tans are done. Today the Golden Globes kick off the movie award season that will end with the Academy Awards on February 9. In between there are the Critics Choice Awards, the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Baftas.
It's a landscape that has changed a lot in recent years with the advent of streaming companies: where once Netflix, Amazon, Hulu and now Apple made TV series that challenged the likes of HBO, now they are taking on the big boys by making award-contending movies. Three of the five Best Picture - Drama nominations in tonight's awards are Netflix productions, and not everyone is best pleased by the changes.
The Golden Globes award both film and TV. They're voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which is made up of about 90 journalists from 55 countries. They have long been considered a good indicator of Academy Award success, partially because they're announced just days before Oscar nomination voting closes and a winning buzz is influential. Although arguably it can set up a damaging backlash too.
Oscars, which cover film only, are chosen by the 6,300 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences; each of the 17 branches votes to create a shortlist of five in their own branch, so for example cinematographers nominate cinematographers. All members vote to create the Best Picture shortlist. Once the nominees are shortlisted all members vote for a winner in all categories.
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Because the nominees are shortlisted by their own peers, and by a far larger number of people than the Golden Globes, the Academy Awards are considered more prestigious.
In addition there has long been a suggestion that the Golden Globes voting is more influenced by marketing and campaigns by the production companies, some of whom have huge budgets for that.
So, while the Globes are still an indicator of Oscar success, there is a growing divide.
Within the Academy there is unhappiness in some quarters about the success of the streaming companies. Steven Spielberg, the Academy governor representing the directors branch, feels that streaming services should only be allowed to enter television awards like the Emmys. But once a film has had a cinema release of at least seven days it is eligible for the Oscars and, despite intensive lobbying for a change to require a longer cinema run, the Academy opted to leave the rule unchanged, leaving Netflix et al in the running.
At last year's Oscars Netflix's Roma very nearly stole the show. If the Golden Globes are anything to go by, this year's Oscars will have fierce Netflix displays from The Irishman, Marriage Story and The Two Popes.
- Read more: Golden Globes 2020 nominations: Saoirse Ronan nominated for Best Actress for Little Women
And the nominees are...
Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Irishman (Netflix)
Marriage Story (Netflix)
Joker (Warner Bros.)
The Two Popes (Netflix)
Such a strong category, each one a fabulous and very different film; it's a very tough call between The Irishman, Marriage Story and Joker.
Best Actress - Drama
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Most opinions have this as a two-horse race between Zellweger and Johansson. But Ronan might have a good night.
Best Actor - Drama
Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Most likely a two-horse race between Driver and Phoenix.
Best Musical or Comedy
Dolemite Is My Name (Netflix)
Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)
Knives Out (Lionsgate)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
Once Upon A Time… is the clear favourite.
Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy
Ana de Armas (Knives Out)
Awkwafina (The Farewell)
Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)
Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)
Emma Thompson (Late Night)
Awkwafina is the favourite, but de Armas and Feldstein are also possibilities.
Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy
Daniel Craig (Knives Out)
Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Between Murphy and DiCaprio.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Annette Bening (The Report)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
This is between Dern and Lopez, with Bates not to be discounted.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…)
A really tough call. Pitt might do it; Pesci and Pacino could damage each other's votes.
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time…)
Greta Gerwig's omission here for Little Women is weird. It's between Scorsese and Tarantino, most likely.
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won (Parasite)
Anthony McCarten (The Two Popes)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time…)
Steven Zaillian (The Irishman)
If Baumbach doesn't win this it will be a shock.
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