Business World

Friday 15 December 2017

US housing starts rise to highest rate in four years in October

Lucia Mutikani

US housing starts rose to their highest rate in more than four years in October, suggesting the housing market recovery was gaining steam, even though permits for future construction fell.

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday housing starts increased 3.6pc to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000 units -- the highest since July 2008.

The report was the latest to show the broadening housing market recovery was now entrenched. Economists, who had expected groundbreaking to slow to an 840,000-unit rate, said the housing strength laid a foundation for faster economic growth next year.

"The broad improvement in home prices, home equity, starts, and inventory clearing are key developments that position the economy for stronger growth next year, and beyond," said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The housing market has decisively turned around after an unprecedented collapse that landed the economy in its worst recession since the Great Depression. The recovery, marked by rising home sales, prices and building activity is being driven by pent-up demand and record low mortgage rates.

Homebuilding is expected to add to gross domestic product growth this year for the first time since 2005. Though home construction accounts for only about 2.5pc of GDP, economists estimate that for every new house built, at least three new jobs are created.

Last month's data led some economists to raise their fourth-quarter growth estimates.

Even so, growth in the last three months of the year is expected to be soft, largely because businesses appear reluctant to invest given the prospect for deep government spending cuts and higher taxes next year.

Fourth-quarter growth forecasts currently range between an annual rate of 1pc and 2.2pc.

The Commerce Department said superstorm Sandy, which slammed the East Coast in late October, had a minimal impact on the data. Economists expected the storm to drag on homebuilding in November, with rebuilding in the months ahead mitigating the impact.

U.S. Treasury debt yields rose in response to the housing data, but stocks edged lower after a downgrade of France's credit rating by Moody's reminded investors of the hurdles facing the global economy.

The Federal Reserve has targeted housing as a channel to boost U.S. growth, announcing in September that it would buy $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month until the outlook for employment improved substantially.

It hopes the purchases will drive down borrowing costs.

"Fed officials can no longer point to housing as a headwind for the economic recovery," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York.

A steady rise in the number of U.S. households, which fell during the 2007-09 recession as financially strapped Americans moved in with friends and family, is also supporting the housing sector.

Economists at Goldman Sachs estimate that household formation -- the net increase in the number of households each year -- will increase to a 1.2 million rate in 2013 from 1 million currently.

They forecast housing starts rising to a 1 million rate by the end of next year and 1.5 million by the end of 2016.

Groundbreaking for new homes has risen 41.9pc over the last year, but starts remain about 60pc below the peak of 2.27 million reached in January 2006.

Last month, groundbreaking for single-family homes, the largest segment of the market, slipped 0.2pc to a 594,000-unit pace. Starts for multi-family homes surged 11.9pc to a 300,000-unit rate, reflecting increased demand for rental apartments.

Building permits fell 2.7pc to an 866,000-unit pace in October after jumping 11.1pc the prior month, in line with expectations.

The drop last month was concentrated in the multifamily segment and is likely to be short-lived. Permits to build single-family homes rose 2.2pc last month to a 562,000-unit pace, while permits for multi-family homes fell 10.6pc to a 304,000-unit rate.

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