US growth slows in third quarter but domestic demand strong
US economic growth braked sharply in the third quarter as businesses cut back on restocking warehouses to work off an inventory glut, but solid domestic demand could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December.
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5 percent annual rate after expanding at a 3.9 percent clip in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday.
The inventory drag, however, is likely to be temporary and economists expect growth to pick up in the fourth quarter given strong domestic fundamentals.
The Fed on Wednesday described the economy as expanding at a "moderate" pace and put a December rate hike on the table with a direct reference to its next policy meeting. The U.S. central bank has kept benchmark overnight interest rates near zero since December 2008.
The economy has struggled to sustain a faster pace of growth since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, with average yearly growth failing to break above 2.5 percent.
Economists had forecast GDP expanding at a 1.6 percent rate in the third quarter.
Businesses accumulated $56.8 billion worth of inventory in the third quarter, the smallest since the first quarter of 2014 and down sharply from $113.5 billion in the April-June period.
The small inventory build sliced off 1.44 percentage points from third-quarter GDP growth, the largest since the fourth quarter of 2012.
CONSUMERS SAVE THE DAY
The blow from inventories was blunted by bullish consumers, who are getting a tailwind from cheaper gasoline and firming housing and labor markets.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 3.2 percent rate after expanding at a 3.6 percent pace in the second quarter. A measure of private domestic demand, which excludes trade, inventories and government spending, rose at a sturdy 3.2 percent pace.
Given a strong dollar, export growth decelerated in the third quarter. The drag was, however, offset by a slowdown in imports, leaving the impact from trade on GDP growth neutral.
Ongoing spending cuts in the energy sector also undermined growth. A plunge in oil prices has prompted oil field companies like Schlumberger (SLB.N) and Halliburton (HAL.N) to slash investment.
Schlumberger said this month it did not expect a recovery in demand before 2017 and anticipated that exploration and production spending would fall again in 2016.
Investment on nonresidential structures contracted at a 4.0 percent pace as spending on mining exploration, wells and shafts tumbled at a 46.9 percent rate. This category dropped at a 68 percent pace in the second quarter.
Despite strong domestic demand, inflation retreated because of dollar strength and cheaper gasoline.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index roseat a 1.2 percent rate after rising 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased at a 1.3 percent pace.