Business World

Wednesday 17 January 2018

Markets brace for rocky ride as ECB plays last card

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi
European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi
Thomas Molloy

Thomas Molloy

The European Central Bank's quantitative easing programme may prove to be major central banks' last salvo in their post-crisis battle to revive growth, heal the financial system and kill off the threat of deflation.

This leaves financial markets more exposed than at any time in the last six years, entering an uncertain world without implicit central bank backing now that monetary authorities have effectively used up all their ammunition.

Having cut interest rates to zero and adopted a range of other unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies that have driven bond yields to their lowest in history - negative, in some cases - central banks' power to drive down the cost of money further and spur risk-taking and growth is waning.

As with the US Federal Reserve's three rounds of QE between 2008 and 2014, the big lurch lower in euro zone bond yields had already happened before the ECB's announcement last week.

Germany's benchmark 10-year yield fell 140 basis points (bps) last year, Italy's 220 bps and Spain's 240 bps, all to record lows. The 50pc collapse in oil prices since June also helped crush yields.

The Fed got even more "bang for its buck", although diminishing returns clearly set in: the 10-year Treasury yield tumbled 200 bps in the two months before the Fed's first round of QE in late 2008; 150 bps between July and September 2011 ahead of "QE2" in November that year; and a further 100 between March and July 2012 before "QE3" in September that year.

So what now? If the QE tide raised all markets, the worry may be that the converse is true now all that liquidity has been pumped in or discounted.

If the first few weeks of January are a guide - notably the Swiss franc undergoing the biggest move for a major currency since global free-floating exchange rates were introduced over 40 years ago - 2015 will be highly volatile for markets.

The Swiss National Bank has spectacularly ditched its three-year exchange rate cap experiment, while the US and British central banks could begin "normalising" policy this year.

On top of that, global growth is creaking. IMF and World Bank both cut their 2015 forecasts this month.

"The reason ECB president Mario Draghi pushed QE out and out and out was because once it's done there really is nothing left - it's the last bullet in the gun," said Anne Richards, chief investment officer at Aberdeen Asset Management.

"We are in for quite a volatile year this year, unquestionably," said Richards, who is Europe's largest independent fund manager, with more than $500bn of assets under management.

Richards recommends having as broad and diversified a portfolio as possible, including assets as diverse as private equity, infrastructure, and selected emerging markets.

She has never seen so much uncertainty in financial markets in her 23-year investment career. Major central banks have pumped more than $10 trillion of stimulus into markets since the 2007-08 crash. Among the consequences, a quarter of all euro zone bonds now carry negative yields, according to Tradeweb. More than $7trn of bonds globally have negative yields, Bank of America Merrill Lynch says.

This stimulus lifted stock markets from the US to Germany to historic highs too, while equity and currency market volatility sank to historic lows. But those tectonic plates are shifting - and most visibly in foreign exchange. On top of the Swiss franc's unprecedented 30pc surge, the euro's slide since last summer and the dollar's broader rise have accelerated in recent weeks.

"We're entering a period of divergence and we're seeing that more in the strength of the dollar, so there may be slightly harder sledging ahead," said Ewen Cameron Watt, chief strategist for BlackRock Investment Institute.

The week ahead

MONDAY

Manufacturing PMI

TUESDAY

Ryanair Q3 results

Exchequer returns (January)

Central Bank quarterly bulletin

UDG Healthcare trading update

WEDNESDAY

Live Register (January)

ECB Governing Council meeting. ECB boss Mario Draghi, right

Hibernia REIT interim management statement. Hibernia CEO Kevin Nowlan, above

Services PMI (January)

THURSDAY

Manufacturing output (December)

Dublin Chamber of Commerce AGM dinner

FRIDAY

Central Bank consumer protection priorities for 2015-2016

Irish Independent

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