Working from home will grow in the future - but don't expect quick revolution

There is still a big 'if' about exactly how the remote working phenomenon will evolve after this pandemic.

Hundreds of thousands of people are working from home right now who would not otherwise be doing so.

But there is a long way to go before we see the kind of revolution that is being talked about and it may be further away than many imagine.

Here are some of the ways it might play out and what the implications could be.

1. Boon for regions and rural Ireland: If employers do see the long-term cost-saving benefits of having more people working from home, then public investment in infrastructure would have to be re-examined.

The economic and social need for big road, rail and energy projects is based on assessments of how many people will use them every day.

The Project Ireland 2040 plan envisages the population growing by a million in the next 20 years.

It predicted the east and midlands, including Dublin, would show a population increase of more than half of that growth, or 540,000 people. The north-west would see an increase of 180,000 while Cork, Limerick and Galway would grow by 50pc.

But we shouldn't rush to envisage software engineers, accountants and solicitors moving to Killybegs or Kilkee. Even if professional firms find it cheaper to scale back on office space, the job is still in Dublin and the workers still live in Dublin and its commuter belt.

It could happen that more people would sell up eventually, or simply move to cheaper locations, but that would take time.

The benefits would be more visible on quieter commuter roads into Dublin city centre before they would be seen in house prices in the west.

A transition to more remote working could in theory benefit rural towns and regional cities, but not very quickly.

2. Broadband: Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said this week that the move to remote working justifies the planned future spend on rural broadband even more.

Of course he is right about that - in theory. The problem with the scheme will be take-up. Build it and they will come is one thing, but build it and they will buy the service is another.

Having the infrastructure in place in rural areas would facilitate a wider rural transformation but, again, only over many years.

3. David and Goliaths: Many of the big employers in Ireland are foreign multinationals. Those involved in manufacturing need to stick to the workplace. Tech giants won't change the model that quickly.

Tech giants are in Ireland for the tax breaks, the wider business infrastructure and the ability to attract or find young talented staff here. They want to see them.

4. Managing a remote workforce: I know of bosses who say their 10 staff are working brilliantly from home and others who say their 10 staff are doing "shag all". How do you manage output, productivity, focus and efficiency remotely? Big employers cannot do it and may introduce greater employee flexibility after the pandemic but they won't abandon their offices any time soon, even if leases allowed.

Small employers are more likely to embrace remote working if the bosses can put in place systems and ways of managing which keep staff focused.

5. Tax breaks: The Government is talking about enhancing existing tax breaks for home working.

The most effective breaks would be for workers to become self-employed. This could lead to an acceleration of the casualisation of employment which brings its own uncertainties and disadvantages.

6. Commercial property: When construction sites for offices open up in the coming weeks, will their finished work be worth less than when they started building it?

Office values in Dublin have not so far shown signs of heavy falls but they probably will on the back of wider recession rather than working from home. Big employers will continue to want places of work. Smaller offices will be more vulnerable.

Human contact still brings about better creativity and performance. Many people simply can't hack it working from home. Lots of employees don't miss the commute now but they miss their work colleagues. Executives know the benefits of a workplace and will balance that with any opportunity to save money.